402
FXUS61 KOKX 082024
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
424 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will remain in close proximity to the
area through midweek. A low pressure system approaches for
Thursday with an associated cold front. This system and its cold
front are expected to slow down and weaken as they continue to
approach through Thursday night. The frontal boundary becomes
nearly stationary within or near the region going into Saturday
before dissipating Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A rather sultry, but dry, evening, ahead that offers little
relief in the humidity. Not entirely out of the question a rogue
showers pops up into the early evening, mainly over the
interior closer to where a weak surface boundary exists, but
warming mid levels have kept things generally capped and at
bay.
Weak southerly flow with a ridge of high pressure situated over
the western Atlantic. This should help development of fog and
low stratus once again this evening and tonight, especially for
coastal areas. Lows by daybreak Tuesday will be in the low to
mid 70s with dew points nearly the same.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The heat and humidity persists through midweek with little
change in the synoptic set up.
After a potentially foggy morning, particularly along the coast,
conditions attempt to clear and may allow development of isolated
to scattered convection focused around a lingering frontal
boundary by afternoon. Air mass gradually destabilizes during
this time with deepening low level moisture. Any convection
Tuesday afternoon and evening likely develops mainly north and
west of NYC, and should largely dissipate with loss of daytime
heating.
Afternoon highs Tuesday likely top out similar to Monday,
generally mid 80s to low 90s. A few mid 90s are possible in the
urban NYC metro. And with the humidity, apparent temperatures
once again climb into the 90s, and perhaps the lower 100s, away
from the immediate shoreline. Heat Advisory remains in place for
most zones, with the exception of portions of Long Island and
coastal SE CT. Opted to extend the Heat Advisory for NE NJ and
NYC thru Wednesday, where confidence is highest in apparent Ts
exceeding 95F, though very possible this may be needed elsewhere
as well. Potential caveats include any convective debris and a
strengthening onshore flow that could limit temperatures and
indices elsewhere.
By Wednesday, eyes turn to what will soon be the remnants of
Beryl making its way north. While the center is expected to
pass well north and west of the region, it should help funnel
additional moisture into the Northeast, and instigate showers
and thunderstorms ahead of an attendant frontal boundary off to
the west. Global guidance progs PWATs above 2 inches on
Wednesday, and this juiced air mass will allow the potential for
torrential downpours with any convection that does develop, and
could lead to flooding, especially if cells were to train or
redevelop over one area. In addition, with a weak shear,
moderate to high CAPE environment north and west of NYC, pulse
strong to severe storms will be possible, though coverage
appears isolated at this time and limited to areas of the Lower
Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ.
WPC has much of the region in a marginal for excessive rainfall
on Wednesday, with a slight just off to the west, highlighting
the need to continue to monitor should this axis shift a bit
farther east. The threat for heavy rainfall increases moving
into Wednesday night as the front advances closer.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The remnant low of Beryl will continue to push to the north but
remain well west of the area such that the entire CWA should remain
in the warm sector of the low pressure Wednesday night and into
Thursday. Models vary as to the extent of showers and thunderstorms
in our area but it appears that much of the heaviest rainfall should
remain north of the area.
The cold front associated with the low pressure system will approach
the area from the west on Thursday, eventually slowing its eastward
progression and stalling over much of the Mid-Atlantic coast with a
large high pressure system positioned over the Western Atlantic.
This boundary will be the focus for rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through much of the end of the week and first half of
the weekend.
A continued S/SW flow will allow for a very moist environment with
PWATs from late Thursday through much of the weekend in the 1.8"-
2.1" range. This sets the stage for any showers or thunderstorms to
produce heavy rainfall. While this set-up is particularly difficult
to narrow down the timing and location of any of the heavier rounds
of storms, it is worth noting that the environment will allow for
the potential for training storms or repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall from storms and may result in hydrologic concerns,
especially through Friday night. The best chance to see the heavier
bouts of storms and rainfall will be for the Lower Hudson Valley and
areas to the north and west of NYC, but will continued to be refined
as the CAMs begin to capture the time frame.
The stationary front over the area will continue to weaken over the
weekend but may continue to allow for the focus of rounds of showers
and storms on Saturday. By Sunday, the continued weakening of the
front should prevent widespread shower or storm activity over the
area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A weak frontal boundary or surface trough will remain in close
proximity to the area through the TAF period.
IFR/LIFR conditions are expected once again in fog and low stratus
after 00Z tonight at outlying coastal terminals. These conditions
may spread as far west as KJFK, although confidence in this
occurring remains low at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the period.
An isolated shower/thunderstorm remains possible northwest of the
NYC terminals late this afternoon/evening, but probability of
occurrence is too low to mention in TAFs.
S-SE winds at 5-10 kt this afternoon will decrease to 5 kt or less
after sunset. Winds then return out of the S Tuesday morning at 5-10
kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Confidence in IFR/LIFR conditions extending into KJFK overnight
remains low.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday: Generally VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon/evening
showers/storms, primarily NW of the city terminals.
Tuesday night: IFR or lower possible in fog/stratus at coastal
terminals, otherwise VFR.
Wednesday through Saturday: MVFR or lower possible at times with
periods of showers/thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Fog and low clouds likely develop on coastal waters once again
this evening, and the fog could be locally dense with
visibilities under 1 nm. Will need to monitor observations
should an advisory be needed once again.
Otherwise, with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place,
conditions on the waters are otherwise expected to be below
small craft advisory thresholds through midweek.
SCA potential for the ocean Thursday through Friday night with waves
5-6 feet and some wind gusts near 25kt. SCA potential for South
Shore Bays Thursday into Thursday night for near 25kt wind gusts.
Otherwise, other waters are forecast to remain below SCA
thresholds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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A few thunderstorms are possible, mainly north and west of NYC,
Tuesday afternoon and evening and could produce locally heavy
downpours that lead to nuisance flooding in urban and poor
drainage areas. Localized flash flooding cannot be entirely
ruled out.
Extended period with near 2" PWATS Wednesday through Friday
night. Any thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday will be
capable of producing heavy rain with the potential of training
or repeated rounds of storms. There will be chances for minor
and urban flooding as well as a chance for localized flash
flooding, with WPC having a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
for the western half of the CWA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk today with light winds and seas
2 to 3 ft. There is a moderate rip current risk on Tuesday as
southerly winds increase and seas may build a bit compared to
Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>071-078-177.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...