631
FXUS61 KOKX 101939
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the west tonight and stalls over the
area on Thursday. The frontal boundary remains within the vicinity
of the local area into next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front approaches from the west tonight, bringing a weakening
area of showers with embedded thunderstorms as CAPE diminishes. Best
chances of showers will be after midnight. Some MUCAPE will still be
present when the front and shortwave lift move through so can`t rule
out an isolated thunderstorm. Additional lift over the eastern zones
will be provided by a strengthening low level jet ahead of the of
the cold front. While mid level shear will be modest, instability
will be lacking, so severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. A
strong gust or two may still occur nevertheless. PWATs around 2.25
inches will however promote a low risk of flash flooding in any
thunderstorms, but the more likely scenario will be minor/poor
drainage flooding should a thunderstorm occur. Muggy conditions
through the night with lows in the 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The front stalls over the area on Thursday with the moisture axis to
its east. The frontal boundary and moisture axis are then progged to
shift back west/east over us through the short term period as weak
ridging arrives from the east through Friday and then a wave of low
pressure forms along the frontal boundary to our south Friday night.
Additional steering influence will come from a shortwave heading
into the Saint Lawrence River Valley. Models still disagree as to
where the axis of deepest moisture (with PWATs around 2.25 inches)
drifts through Friday night, which presents challenges in
forecasting where the greatest flooding potential will exist.
There`s at least general agreement that the better chance of
flooding would occur Friday afternoon and night with the approach of
lift from the south associated with low pressure wave. So after
chance/slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Thursday night, rain with embedded thunderstorms becomes likely for
Friday and Friday night. See the hydrology section below for more
details.
Muggy conditions continue through the short term period, but at
least heat indices should remain below advisory thresholds both
days.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Key Points:
* Warm and humid conditions will be on the increase once again, with
excessive heat and humidity possible again Sunday through the
middle of next week.
* A unsettled pattern also continues into next week. While not a
washout by any means, precipitation chances remain in the
forecast, especially Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Subtropical ridge that has influenced our weather as of late will
begin to shift southeast on Saturday as an upper trough passes well
to the north. This will result in mainly zonal flow aloft through
the weekend. Weak ridging begins to build in aloft, thereafter.
At the surface, a weak boundary remains stalled near or just south
of the area over the weekend. This boundary slowly slides south and
dissipates by early next week. Thus, have kept precipitation
chances, slight to chance, in the forecast each day. Any remnant
precipitation should shift offshore by Saturday afternoon.
Mainly dry conditions are expected thereafter into Sunday. By
Sunday night into Monday, a weak shortwave aloft may instigate
some afternoon showers/thunderstorms.
By Sunday, 850 temps begin to warm, and continue to do so through
early next week, peaking at 19-23C. With southwesterly sfc flow
ramping up Sunday into Monday, expecting dewpoints in the low 70s by
early next week and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
This will put heat indices Sunday in the mid 90s for NE NJ, NYC and
parts of the Lower Hudson Valley/SW CT. This looks to continue into
Monday and Tuesday, and would require heat headlines should
confidence increase.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front approaching from the west moves into the western
terminals this evening, then becomes nearly stationary, and possible
dissipates late tonight. A weak surface trough remains in the
vicinity Thursday.
VFR at most locations with IFR/MVFR at KISP and KGON. There is
uncertainty as to when conditions improve at KISP this afternoon,
and a brief period of VFR is possible late in the day. KGON likely
remains MVFR before a return to IFR/LIFR this evening into the
overnight.
With some instability scattered to isolated thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon at KEWR and KTEB and included a VCTS, and an
isolated thunderstorm possible at KJFK and KLGA, however, chances
are low, and did not mention in the forecast. Best chances for
thunder will be at KSWF into this evening. With the approach of the
cold front this evening, there is a low chance of thunderstorms at
the NYC metro terminals, and included a TEMPO, however, the line
will be weakening as it moves toward the coast.
Winds remain southerly with gusts 20-30kt, highest and most frequent
along the coast. Winds gradually shift to the SW this evening,
especially in the NYC metro area, and winds shift more westerly at
KSWF late tonight with the cold front moving into the region.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
An isolated thunderstorm is possible later this afternoon at KEWR
and KTEB. With the low chances and low confidence in occurrence,
have not included in the forecast.
Timing of return of IFR conditions mainly at KJFK uncertain, and may
be later than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon: VFR. Winds SW gusting 15-20kt.
Thursday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower possible at times
with periods of showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise VFR.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR possible/
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA has been extended to include all of Thursday night on the ocean
as seas will remain elevated. The threat of gusts of up to 25kt
however ends Thursday evening. The advisory will likely need to be
extended into Friday as seas remain elevated with some swell.
Winds and waves look to remain below SCA thresholds on all
waters Saturday through Sunday evening with a weak pressure
gradient in place.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Heavy rain remains a possibility with any showers/thunderstorms that
develop early next week with an increasingly warm and humid airmass
in place. It is too early to ascertain any specific rainfall
amounts, but localized heavier rainfall can be expected with any
convection.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development along all ocean
beaches today through Thursday. Onshore flow becomes more gusty
with building ocean seas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078-
176>179.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DBR
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...