282
FXUS61 KOKX 162109
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
509 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough will remain in place through tonight. A cold
front approaching from the west on Wednesday will move through
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The exiting cold
front looks to slow down and linger offshore as high pressure
slowly builds in. The high will remain in control through the
weekend, with a weak cold frontal passage possible late Sunday
into Monday. A warm front will move through on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Severe tstm watch 548 in effect until 10 PM for NYC, the lower
Hudson Valley, and NE NJ until 10 PM. Sct line of strong to
severe storms over ern PA will move into the area late today
into this, reaching Orange after 5 PM, the NYC metro area from
about 6-9 PM, and clearing Nassau at the ern edge of the watch
area by 10 PM. With steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE over
1000 J/kg, strongest storms will have good potential to produce
damaging winds. Expect storms to weaken as they move farther E
into the marine layer across most S CT and Long Island, where
winds will be quite gusty out of the S across Long Island into
this evening (25-35 mph). A gusty tstm or two may still manage
to make it that far but the svr threat there looks minimal.

Conditions dry out tonight with another very warm and humid
night expected. Low temps will be near 80 in NYC and in the
mid/upper 70s most elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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One more afternoon of hazardous heat and humidity expected
across much of the region Wednesday before a respite. Digging
trough will push a cold front toward the region, instigating
convection once again in the afternoon and evening. Ahead of it,
temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s, and heat
indices likely top out between 95 and 100, and a little higher
than that in the urban corridor of NE NJ.

Showers and thunderstorms become likely by mid to late
afternoon for western areas, spreading east and persisting thru
the evening, before cold fropa late at night into Thu morning.
SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe tstms for the LoHud
Valley, NE NJ, NYC, and western Long Island, with a marginal
risk farther east. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard,
though torrential downpours with this activity could lead to
flooding. CAM`s continue to show good potential for widespread
1+ inch rainfall amts and locally 2-3 inches, with the 12Z HREF
still showing a 10% chance of 3 inches in 3 hr across SW CT late
day Wed, and SW of NYC Wed evening. The showers and storms
likely linger overnight, gradually ending from west to east
working into Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Key Points:

* A cold front will continue working offshore on Thursday. A few
  showers, possibly a thunderstorm may linger nearby in the morning
  with dry conditions becoming likely in the afternoon and evening.

* Daytime temperatures will return to seasonable levels Thursday and
  Friday, with dew points falling into the lower 60s to upper 50s.

* A slight moderating temperature trend is possible for the upcoming
  weekend, but highs will still be in the middle to upper 80s with
  dew points in the 60s.

* Mainly dry conditions should persist through the upcoming weekend,
  with unsettled weather returning early next week.

By Thursday morning the cold front should already be moving through
the area, but will slow down and may not push offshore until mid-
morning. This will allow for a lingering chance of showers Thursday
morning. Once offshore, the front likely stalls through the weekend.
High pressure slowly builds in behind the departing cold front and
will bring in a drier airmass with more seasonable temperatures to
end the week. High pressure will remain in control through the
weekend.

Late Sunday into Monday an approaching weakening cold front may pass
through the area, but will likely not result in anything other than
an isolated shower. At the same time, the aforementioned front
stalled offshore will start to make it`s way back north. This front
will return unsettled weather to the area with chances of
showers/thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A surface trough will remain nearby into tonight. A cold front
approaches from the west during Wednesday afternoon.

Chances for thunderstorms increase late afternoon into early
evening, 22Z to 03Z, with MVFR, and IFR in the stronger
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms in the NYC metro and to the
northwest have the potential to be severe with strong gusty
winds, to around 35kt, with isolated gusts 40kt to 50kt. There
is some timing uncertainty, +/- an hour or so, with the
thunderstorms. Otherwise, winds generally S/SW and gusty into
this evening, with sea breezes.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of convection may be +/- an hour or so. Potential that winds
gust 40-50 kt in stronger thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday afternoon and night: MVFR or lower in showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening with strong
gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall. Still a chance of
showers and thunderstorms later at night.

Thursday: Chance of showers east of the NYC terminals in the
morning with MVFR possible, otherwise VFR.

Friday through Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters and the Long Island
south shore bays, as near shore gusts via combo of an enhanced
sea breeze and Ambrose jet increase to 25-30 kt late today into
this evening. Ocean seas are already at 4 ft, and with synoptic
scale flow increasing to near 20 kt seas of 5-6 ft tonight into
Wed morning.

Advisory conditions are again likely on all ocean waters late
day Wed with another surge of SW wind sustained up to 20 kt and
5-6 ft seas ahead of an approaching cold front. These elevated
seas should linger into daytime Thu.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With a humid air mass in place, any thunderstorms that develop
through Wed night will have the potential to produce downpours
capable of causing at least minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Thursday through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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S-SW flow peaking at 15-20 kt late day Wednesday and seas 5-6 ft
support a high rip current risk. The high risk will continue
into Thursday with seas remaining elevated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures for today (fcst temps at most
sites may get close):

 ...TUE JUL 16...

Newark:       101/1988
Bridgeport:    95/2013
Central Park:  99/1980
LaGuardia:     97/1980
Kennedy:      100/1983
Islip:         95/1983

Daily record high minimum temperatures for the next couple of
days:

 ...TUE JUL 16...

Newark:        80/1983 (still in jeopardy of being tied or broken)
Bridgeport:    75/2013
Central Park:  80/1952
LaGuardia:     81/2021
Kennedy:       81/1983
Islip:         76/1983

 ...WED JUL 17...

Newark:        80/1968
Bridgeport:    77/1968
Central Park:  82/1870
LaGuardia:     79/1999
Kennedy:       79/2013*
Islip:         75/2021*

* = also in previous years

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-
     009>011.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>011.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009-
     010.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     176-178.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078>080-
     176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT
CLIMATE...BG