688
FXUS61 KOKX 181138
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
738 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly gets to the east today, and gets further
offshore late tonight as high pressure builds. The high settles
over the region on Friday. The high will remain in control
through the weekend, with a weak cold frontal passage possible
late Sunday into Monday. A warm front will move through early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front serving as the leading edge of less humid air moves
through during this morning. The winds switch to a more N and NW
direction. This will lead to less humid air gradually working in
through the day. Dew point readings are expected to fall through the
60s during the afternoon. Temperatures will not be quite as hot, but
still rather warm with afternoon highs reaching the middle and upper
80s, closer to normal for mid July. Expect a good deal of clouds
initially, especially further east. By the afternoon there will be
more in the way of sun, but with a mid to high deck filtering out
the sun. Therefore skies are expected to average out partly sunny.
For tonight skies are expected to completely clear. The winds will
be light as high pressure builds. Slightly lower dew points /
humidity will lead to more comfortable weather. Lows are expected to
be primarily in the 60s, near 70 in the NYC metro and in the upper
50s to around 60 in far interior NW sections.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure settling over the area look for light winds and
seasonably warm temperatures. Temperatures are expected to reach the
middle and a few upper 80s once again under sunny skies. The winds
will switch around later in the day for coastal sections with
localized sea breezes due to a weak synoptic pressure gradient along
with more comfortable humidity levels. With high pressure in control
clear skies continue into Friday night with most lows falling back
into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term forecast and the
stuck fairly close to the NBM.
High pressure remains in control through the weekend. The front that
passes offshore today will remain south of the region. Temperatures
this weekend will be in the middle and upper 80s to around 90,
warmest in the NYC metro and NE NJ. Dew points in the lower 60s will
prevent heat indices from rising too much above the actual air
temperature.
A weakening cold front may pass across the area late Sunday
into Monday, but will likely not result in anything other than
an isolated shower. At the same time, the aforementioned front
stalled offshore will start to make it`s way back north as a
warm front. This front will return unsettled weather to the area
with chances of showers/thunderstorms mainly Tuesday into next
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front continues to push across the terminals this
morning. Its mainly VFR, except at KGON which should become VFR
in the next hour or so. It will remain VFR though the TAF
period.
NW to N flow today, generally 10 kt or less. Winds may become
more W or SW especially at the coastal terminals. There is a
chance of afternoon seabreezes at KJFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Chance of a seabreeze at JFK this afternoon. Amendments may be
need to fine tune any wind direction changes this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday-Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions should persist through mid morning for
the western half of the ocean, the central ocean through much
of this afternoon, and into this evening on the eastern most
ocean zone. More marginal small craft seas are expected on the
eastern most ocean waters through tonight. Seas should gradually
subside thereafter through Friday and into the start of the
weekend.
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels on all the waters
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip currents continue on Thursday and Friday for
atlantic beaches. By later Friday afternoon the risk is expected to
fall to a more moderate level for the more western ocean
beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...