397
FXUS61 KOKX 181444
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front was just east and south of the area at mid morning,
and will continue to move further offshore late tonight as high
pressure builds. The high settles over the region on Friday.
The high will remain in control through the weekend, with a weak
cold frontal passage possible late Sunday into Monday. A warm
front will move through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The cold front has now exited the area, and was just east of
Montauk Point and south of Long Island as winds have shifted to
the NW, and dew points were slowly lowering. This front is the
leading edge of a less humid airmass through the day. Dew point
readings are expected to fall through the 60s during the
afternoon. Temperatures will not be quite as hot, but still
rather warm with afternoon highs reaching the middle and upper
80s, closer to normal for mid July. Expect a good deal of clouds
initially, especially further east. By the afternoon there will
be more in the way of sun, but with a mid to high deck
filtering out the sun. Therefore skies are expected to average
out partly sunny.
For tonight skies are expected to completely clear. The winds will
be light as high pressure builds. Slightly lower dew points /
humidity will lead to more comfortable weather. Lows are expected to
be primarily in the 60s, near 70 in the NYC metro and in the upper
50s to around 60 in far interior NW sections.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure settling over the area look for light winds and
seasonably warm temperatures. Temperatures are expected to reach the
middle and a few upper 80s once again under sunny skies. The winds
will switch around later in the day for coastal sections with
localized sea breezes due to a weak synoptic pressure gradient along
with more comfortable humidity levels. With high pressure in control
clear skies continue into Friday night with most lows falling back
into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term forecast and the
stuck fairly close to the NBM.
High pressure remains in control through the weekend. The front that
passes offshore today will remain south of the region. Temperatures
this weekend will be in the middle and upper 80s to around 90,
warmest in the NYC metro and NE NJ. Dew points in the lower 60s will
prevent heat indices from rising too much above the actual air
temperature.
A weakening cold front may pass across the area late Sunday
into Monday, but will likely not result in anything other than
an isolated shower. At the same time, the aforementioned front
stalled offshore will start to make it`s way back north as a
warm front. This front will return unsettled weather to the area
with chances of showers/thunderstorms mainly Tuesday into next
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A weak trough will linger across the region today, with a
stronger cold front moving through this evening. High pressure
gradually builds towards the region from the west through
Friday.
VFR thru the period.
NW to N winds around 10 kt this morning, likely backing to W/WNW
this afternoon. Potential for late day S seabreeze for
KJFK and SW for KBDR/KGON. Period of N/NW winds to 15 to 20 kt
this evening in wake of cold frontal passage.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds right of 310 mag, likely backing to the left of 310 mag
for KEWR/KJFK after 18z, potentially backing to the left at
KLGA. Chance of a S seabreeze at JFK btwn 20 and 24z.
N/NW gusts to 15-20kt likely after 02-04z this evening.
Amendments may be needed to fine tune any wind direction
changes this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.
Tuesday: Potential MVFR with SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Seas at buoy 44025 remain over 5 feet, around 5.5 feet, and will
continue the SCA west of Fire Island Inlet until Noon, although
this may need to be extended if seas do not lower in the next
couple of hours.
And small craft conditions across the central ocean zones should
persist through much of this afternoon, and into this evening
on the eastern most ocean zone. More marginal small craft seas
are expected on the eastern most ocean waters through tonight.
Seas should gradually subside thereafter through Friday and into
the start of the weekend.
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels on all the waters
this weekend into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high risk of rip currents continue on Thursday and Friday for
the Atlantic beaches. By later Friday afternoon the risk is
expected to fall to a more moderate level for the more western
ocean beaches.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...BC/JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...