974
FXUS61 KOKX 181956
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the west tonight and remains over
the region into Saturday. High pressure weakens over the area
early in the week as a stationary front over the Mid Atlantic
begins to work slowly north as a warm front. The front is
forecast lift across the area mid week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Surface high pressure builds in from the west tonight as an
upper trough moves east and heights slowly rise. Skies will be
clearing through the night, and a light northerly flow will
diminish, becoming light and variable at a few locations. And
dew points will be slowly fall into the mid to upper 50s
overnight, with weak cold advection. This combination will allow
temperatures to drop to a few degrees below seasonal normals.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The upper trough lifts north of the area during Friday, with a
light westerly flow through Saturday. Meanwhile the surface
high will remain over the region Friday into Saturday, and begin
to weaken late Saturday as a cold front begins to approach to
the north. A relatively dry airmass remains through Friday
night, and then dew points begin to increase into the lower to
mid 60s during Saturday. Temperatures Friday through Saturday
will be near seasonal normals.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An upper trough across eastern Canada and the Northeast gradually
lifts out to the north through mid week, while a weaker trough over
the mid section of the country amplifies as jet energy dives south
from central Canada. This will allow for backing of the upper flow,
sending a stationary front across the Mid Atlantic northward and
into the area by midweek.

Airmass during this time gradually destabilizes as conditions become
increasingly more humid with an onshore shore S/SE flow.
Temperatures will start off slightly above normal, however, with a
forecast increase in cloud cover and showers and thunderstorms,
highs will be a bit lower by mid week. Generally looking for highs
in the mid and upper 80s, except cooler along the immediate coast.
Lows are forecast to me in the 60s inland, to the lower 70s along
the coast.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday as the warm front approaches from the
south. Before then though, focus may be along an inverted/thermal
trough from the Mid Atlantic states northward into western portions
of the area along with some shortwave energy in the westerlies.
Chances are low on Saturday night and again Monday/Monday night.
PWATs are forecast to increase to around 2 inches by mid week, thus,
heavy rain become more likely with any convection later in the
period. However, it is much too early to be specific with any
details. Frontal timing and location will will be critical.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front moves through this evening. High pressure
gradually builds towards the region from the west through
Friday.

VFR thru the period.

W/WNW this afternoon, with S seabreeze relegated to JFK. Potential
for late day SW for KBDR/KGON. Winds should veer back to NW by
around 00z. Period of N/NW wind gusts to 15 to 20 kt this evening in
wake of cold frontal passage.

On Friday, N winds less than 10 kt, backing W in the afternoon,
giving way to afternoon coastal seabreezes.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds veering to the right of 310 mag by 00z, except by 03z for JFK
due to S sea breeze. N/NW gusts to 15-20kt likely after 02-04z this
evening. N winds around 10 kt for Fri AM push.

Amendments may be needed to fine tune any wind direction
changes this aft/eve.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday aft-Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.

Tuesday: Potential MVFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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The SCA west of Fire Island Inlet was allowed to expire this
afternoon. Ocean seas will continue to slowly subside west to
east this evening and into the overnight. A SCA remain in the
central ocean waters until 800 PM EDT, and until 200 AM Friday
on the eastern ocean waters. Thereafter, winds and seas remain
below advisory levels on all the waters into early next week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Tuesday into
Wednesday, but it is still too early to be specific with
hydrologic impacts.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high risk of rip currents will continue this evening and likely
into and Friday for the Atlantic beaches. By later Friday afternoon,
the risk is expected to fall to a more moderate level for the more
western ocean beaches.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...