294
FXUS61 KOKX 182204
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A secondary cold front will move through the area this evening,
followed by high pressure building in from the west into Saturday.
The high weakens over the area into early next week as a
stationary front over the Mid Atlantic begins to work slowly
north as a warm front. The front is forecast lift across the
area mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper trough lifting across the Northeast tonight will send a
secondary cold front through the area. It should be dry. Latest
HRRR shows a spotty shower or two. This seems unlikely, but if
it did occur expect it to be real brief.
Surface high pressure builds in from the overnight with clearing
skies and northerly flow. Dew points will be slowly fall into
the mid to upper 50s overnight, with weak cold advection. This
combination will allow temperatures to drop to a few degrees
below seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough lifts north of the area during Friday, with a
light westerly flow through Saturday. Meanwhile the surface
high will remain over the region Friday into Saturday, and begin
to weaken late Saturday as a cold front begins to approach to
the north. A relatively dry airmass remains through Friday
night, and then dew points begin to increase into the lower to
mid 60s during Saturday. Temperatures Friday through Saturday
will be near seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough across eastern Canada and the Northeast gradually
lifts out to the north through mid week, while a weaker trough over
the mid section of the country amplifies as jet energy dives south
from central Canada. This will allow for backing of the upper flow,
sending a stationary front across the Mid Atlantic northward and
into the area by midweek.
Airmass during this time gradually destabilizes as conditions become
increasingly more humid with an onshore shore S/SE flow.
Temperatures will start off slightly above normal, however, with a
forecast increase in cloud cover and showers and thunderstorms,
highs will be a bit lower by mid week. Generally looking for highs
in the mid and upper 80s, except cooler along the immediate coast.
Lows are forecast to me in the 60s inland, to the lower 70s along
the coast.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday as the warm front approaches from the
south. Before then though, focus may be along an inverted/thermal
trough from the Mid Atlantic states northward into western portions
of the area along with some shortwave energy in the westerlies.
Chances are low on Saturday night and again Monday/Monday night.
PWATs are forecast to increase to around 2 inches by mid week, thus,
heavy rain become more likely with any convection later in the
period. However, it is much too early to be specific with any
details. Frontal timing and location will will be critical.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves through this evening. High pressure
gradually builds towards the region from the west through
Friday.
VFR thru the period.
W/WNW this afternoon, with S seabreeze relegated to JFK. Potential
for late day SW for KBDR/KGON. Winds should veer back to NW by
around 00z. Period of N/NW wind gusts to 15 to 20 kt this evening in
wake of cold frontal passage.
On Friday, N winds less than 10 kt, backing W in the afternoon,
giving way to afternoon coastal seabreezes.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds veering to the right of 310 mag by 00z, except by 03z for JFK
due to S sea breeze. N/NW gusts to 15-20kt likely after 02-04z this
evening. N winds around 10 kt for Fri AM push.
Amendments may be needed to fine tune any wind direction
changes this aft/eve.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday aft-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.
Tuesday: Potential MVFR with SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Ocean seas will continue to very slowly subside west to east
this evening and into the overnight. A SCA remains up for the
eastern ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet until 200 AM
Friday. Thereafter, winds and seas remain below advisory levels
on all the waters into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Tuesday into
Wednesday, but it is still too early to be specific with
hydrologic impacts.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A high risk of rip currents will continue for the eastern
beaches of Suffolk county on Friday due to a linger southerly
swell. Elsewhere, expect a moderate risk. A low risk is
forecast for all beaches on Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-178-179.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...