001
FXUS61 KOKX 190256
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will move through the area this evening,
followed by high pressure building in from the west into Saturday.
The high weakens over the area into early next week as a
stationary front over the Mid Atlantic begins to work slowly
north as a warm front. The front is forecast lift across the
area mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.

Upper trough lifting across the Northeast tonight will send a
secondary cold front through the area. It should be dry. Latest
HRRR shows a spotty shower or two. This seems unlikely, but if
it did occur expect it to be real brief.

Surface high pressure builds in from the overnight with clearing
skies and northerly flow. Dew points will slowly fall into the
mid to upper 50s overnight, with weak cold advection. This
combination will allow temperatures to drop to a few degrees
below seasonal normals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough lifts north of the area during Friday, with a
light westerly flow through Saturday. Meanwhile the surface
high will remain over the region Friday into Saturday, and begin
to weaken late Saturday as a cold front begins to approach to
the north. A relatively dry airmass remains through Friday
night, and then dew points begin to increase into the lower to
mid 60s during Saturday. Temperatures Friday through Saturday
will be near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough across eastern Canada and the Northeast gradually
lifts out to the north through mid week, while a weaker trough over
the mid section of the country amplifies as jet energy dives south
from central Canada. This will allow for backing of the upper flow,
sending a stationary front across the Mid Atlantic northward and
into the area by midweek.

Airmass during this time gradually destabilizes as conditions become
increasingly more humid with an onshore shore S/SE flow.
Temperatures will start off slightly above normal, however, with a
forecast increase in cloud cover and showers and thunderstorms,
highs will be a bit lower by mid week. Generally looking for highs
in the mid and upper 80s, except cooler along the immediate coast.
Lows are forecast to me in the 60s inland, to the lower 70s along
the coast.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday as the warm front approaches from the
south. Before then though, focus may be along an inverted/thermal
trough from the Mid Atlantic states northward into western portions
of the area along with some shortwave energy in the westerlies.
Chances are low on Saturday night and again Monday/Monday night.
PWATs are forecast to increase to around 2 inches by mid week, thus,
heavy rain become more likely with any convection later in the
period. However, it is much too early to be specific with any
details. Frontal timing and location will will be critical.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves through this evening. High pressure
gradually builds towards the region from the west through
Friday.

VFR through the period.

NW to N winds overnight at 5 to around 10 kt with gusts 15 to
20 kt in wake of cold frontal passage.

On Friday, N winds less than 10 kt, shift W in the afternoon,
giving way to afternoon coastal sea breezes.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

NW to N winds with gusts to 15-20 kt likely through 09Z-10Z. N
winds around 10 kt for Fri AM push.

Some uncertainty in KEWR and KTEB wind direction forecast as
sea breeze may push through these terminals late Friday
afternoon, shifting the direction more toward 150.

Amendments may be needed to fine tune any wind direction
changes this eve.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night-Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.

Tuesday: Potential MVFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas will continue to very slowly subside west to east
this evening and into the overnight. A SCA remains up for the
eastern ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet until 200 AM
Friday. Thereafter, winds and seas remain below advisory levels
on all the waters into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Tuesday into
Wednesday, but it is still too early to be specific with
hydrologic impacts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip currents will continue for the eastern
beaches of Suffolk county on Friday due to a linger southerly
swell. Elsewhere, expect a moderate risk. A low risk is
forecast for all beaches on Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...