104
FXUS61 KOKX 191858
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
258 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will gradually weaken and move offshore
this weekend. The high continues to weaken into early next week
as a stationary front over the Mid Atlantic begins to work slowly
north as a warm front. The front is forecast to lift across the
area mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Minor adjustments were made this update to reflect latest
observations.
High pressure will continue to build in from the west today
with a thermal trough setting up across the area this afternoon.
A light northerly flow will become onshore along the coast this
afternoon. Dew points will likely remain in the 50s, making it
much more comfortable in terms of the recent weather pattern.
With high pressure in control clear skies continue into much of
tonight, with perhaps some higher levels clouds approaching
later. With light winds minimum temperatures will be primarily
in the 60s, but possibly a into the 50s for a few spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During Saturday a mid level shortwave off to the southwest over the
Tennessee Valley and the Lower Appalachians will attempt to lift
northeast. There is some disagreement among the NWP guidance as to
how far to the north the shortwave ultimately gets Saturday
afternoon and evening. For now have introduced primarily slight
chance PoPs / isolated t-storm for the western half to western third
of the area. The majority of the day should primarily be dry. The
winds will be light out of the S and SW with the weak synoptic
gradient in place. The humidity is expected to creep up a bit into
the afternoon as dew point readings get back into the more familiar
lower and middle 60s. Day time max temperatures will once again get
into the middle and upper 80s.
For Saturday night there should be a fair amount of cloud cover
early, especially further west and less clouds further east. With
the air mass undergoing modification temperatures should be a touch
warmer than the previous night. With slightly higher humidity levels
and clouds around for a portion of the night expect minimum
temperatures to range from the middle 60s to the lower 70s.
The air mass continues to undergo modification with a very gradual
warming trend into Sunday. With a good deal of sunshine expected
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer overall compared to
earlier in the weekend. Afternoon maximum temperatures will range
from the middle 80s closer to the shoreline, to around 90 across the
NYC metro and metro NE NJ. Elongated weak high pressure is expected
to remain in control to close out the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure north of the region will continue to gradually
weaken on Monday. Meanwhile, a stationary front south of the
region will gradually lift northward as a warm front, eventually
stalling near the area during the mid-week. This front then
passes back as a cold front late in the week.
The airmass during this time gradually destabilizes as conditions
become increasingly more humid with an onshore shore S/SE flow.
Temperatures will start off slightly above normal, however,
with a forecast increase in cloud cover and showers and
thunderstorms, highs will be a bit lower by mid week. Generally
looking for highs in the mid and upper 80s, except cooler along
the immediate coast. Lows are forecast to me in the 60s inland,
to the lower 70s along the coast.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday as the warm front approaches from the
south. PWATs are forecast to increase to around 2 inches by mid
week, thus, heavy rain become more likely with any convection later
in the period. However, it is much too early to be specific with
any details. Frontal timing and location will will be critical.
Drier conditions may be possible on Friday, depending on the timing
of the cold front moving across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually builds towards the region from the west
this afternoon.
VFR through the period.
N winds less than 10 kt, shift W in the afternoon, giving way to
afternoon coastal sea breezes. Winds become light and variable
tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Some uncertainty in KEWR and KTEB wind direction forecast as sea
breeze may push through these terminals late this afternoon,
shifting the direction more toward 150.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Friday night-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Potential MVFR with SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas will subside from 4 ft today, and closer to 3 ft
tonight. For the weekend, ocean seas will be primarily around 2
ft due to a light pressure gradient.
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels on all the waters into
next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected through the weekend with primarily
dry conditions. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase
Tuesday into Wednesday, but it is still too early to be specific
with any potential hydrologic impacts.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current activity takes places for Nassau and
SW Suffolk beaches today, with a high risk for eastern Suffolk
ocean beaches. On Saturday a low risk is expected along much of
the Atlantic ocean beachfront, except for a moderate risk
lingering into the morning for the eastern atlantic beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...