600
FXUS61 KOKX 192004
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the area will gradually weaken and move offshore
this weekend. A weakening cold front approaching from the north should
dissipate just north of the area Sunday night. A warm front over the
Mid Atlantic will then work slowly north and impact the area
from late Tuesday into Thursday. A cold front may pass through
on Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure remains across the area overnight. Mid and high
level clouds increase late tonight as a shortwave trough over
the deep south lifts north and east. With the combination of
a light southerly flow, clear skies, and a relatively dry
airmass, leaned toward the cooler MOS versus the NBM. This
results in lows right around normal, ranging from around 60 well
inland, to around 70 for the NYC metro. A few spots may even
drop into the upper 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mid and high level clouds continue to increase Saturday morning
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Airmass will gradually
destabilize to the north and west of NYC as southerly winds bring
dew points into the 60s. Still though, the deepest moisture will
be confined to the the mid and upper levels and the question
remains will that be sufficient enough for showers in the afternoon
and nighttime hours. The latest CAMs, in particular the HRRR,
shows scattered activity developing to the NW of NYC in the
afternoon and then working east during the late afternoon into
evening hours. This is by no means forecast to be washout and
coverage should be spotty into Saturday night. Any showers that
do form should be brief.
Sunday looks to be a dry day with another thermal trough
setting up with weak ridging across the area. A cold front
approaches from the northwest.
Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s, but
with more sun on Sunday, should get into the mid and upper 80s.
Cooler conditions will prevail along the south facing Atlantic
beaches. Lows Saturday night will be in the mid 60s to lower
70s. Humidity will gradually increase during this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A weakening cold front from the north should dissipate on approach
Sunday night. A deep layer SW flow should then take over, with a
warm front lifting north from the Mid Atlantic region and bringing
an extended period of unsettled wx from late Tue afternoon through
Thu as the front stalls nearby and shortwaves move through the flow
aloft.
Temps through the period should be slightly above normal especially
at night, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Even with dewpoints also increasing to the upper 60s
and lower 70s, no heat related issues expected, with max heat index
values in the lower 90s.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be from
Tuesday afternoon into Thursday as the front approaches from the
south and PW increases to over 2 inches. Heavy rain could become
more likely with any convection during this time, possibly severe wx
with bulk shear increasing with the approach of each shortwave
aloft, but it is still too early to be specific with any details.
Timing and location of the front and shortwaves aloft will will be
critical, and even though all forecast periods feature at least
chance PoP across the entire area from Tue afternoon through Thu
night, there could be some dry periods in between passing
shortwaves.
Drier conditions may be possible on Friday, depending on the timing
of a closed low moving from the Great Lakes toward ern Canada/nrn
New England, and an associated trailing sfc cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure dominates through the TAF period.
VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon shower N and W of NYC terminals
Sat afternoon but probabilities are too low to include in the TAF.
W-NW winds 10 kt or less across inland areas and sea breezes at the
coast through evening. Winds become light and variable tonight.
Mainly SW-S winds 10 kt or less Saturday with sea breezes at
the coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Friday night-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Potential MVFR with SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n9-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas will subside from 4 ft today, and closer to 3 ft
tonight. For the weekend, ocean seas will be primarily around 2
ft due to a light pressure gradient.
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels on all the waters into
next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues are expected through the weekend with
primarily dry conditions.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase from Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday. There is some potential for heavy rainfall with PW
increasing to around or just over 2 inches, but it is still too
early to be specific with any potential impacts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate risk of rip current activity takes places for Nassau and
SW Suffolk beaches into this evening, with a high risk for
eastern Suffolk ocean beaches. On Saturday a low risk is
expected along much of the Atlantic ocean beachfront, except for
a moderate risk lingering into the morning for the eastern
atlantic beaches.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...