424
FXUS61 KOKX 192259
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
659 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the area will gradually weaken and move
offshore this weekend. A weakening cold front approaching from
the north should dissipate just north of the area Sunday night.
A warm front over the Mid Atlantic region will then work slowly
north and impact the area from late Tuesday into Thursday.
A cold front may pass through on Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains across the area overnight. Mid and high
level clouds increase late tonight as a shortwave trough over
the deep south lifts north and east. With the combination of a
light southerly flow, clear skies, and a relatively dry airmass,
leaned toward the cooler MOS versus the NBM. This results in
lows right around normal, ranging from around 60 well inland, to
around 70 for the NYC metro. A few spots may even drop into the
upper 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid and high level clouds continue to increase Saturday morning
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The air mass will
gradually destabilize to the north and west of NYC as
southerly winds bring dew points into the 60s. Still though, the
deepest moisture will be confined to the the mid and upper
levels and the question remains will that be sufficient enough
for showers in the afternoon and nighttime hours. CAMs, in
particular the HRRR, showed scattered activity developing to
the NW of NYC in the afternoon and then working east during the
late afternoon into evening hours. This is by no means forecast
to be a washout and coverage should be spotty into Saturday
night. Any showers that do form should be brief.
Sunday looks to be a dry day with another thermal trough
setting up with weak ridging across the area. A cold front
approaches from the northwest.
Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the lower/mid 80s, but
with more sunshine on Sunday, should get into the mid and upper
80s. Cooler conditions will prevail at the south facing beaches.
Lows Saturday night will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Humidity will gradually increase during this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weakening cold front from the north should dissipate on
approach Sunday night. A deep layer SW flow should then take
over, with a warm front lifting north from the Mid Atlantic
region and bringing an extended period of unsettled wx from late
Tue afternoon through Thu as the front stalls nearby and
shortwaves move through the flow aloft.
Temps through the period should be slightly above normal
especially at night, with highs generally in the 80s and lows
in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Even with dewpoints also
increasing to the upper 60s and lower 70s, no heat related
issues expected, with max heat index values in the lower 90s.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be from
Tuesday afternoon into Thursday as the front approaches from the
south and PW increases to over 2 inches. Heavy rain could
become more likely with any convection during this time,
possibly severe wx as bulk shear increases with the approach of
each shortwave aloft, but it is still too early to be specific
with any details. Timing and location of the front and
shortwaves aloft will will be critical, and even though all
forecast periods feature at least chance PoP across the entire
area from Tue afternoon through Thu night, there should be some
dry periods in between passing shortwaves.
Drier conditions may be possible on Friday, depending on the
timing of a closed low moving from the Great Lakes toward ern
Canada/nrn New England, and an associated trailing sfc cold
front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure dominates through the TAF period.
VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon shower N and W of the NYC
metro terminals Sat afternoon. Probabilities are too low to
include in the TAF.
W-NW winds 10 kt or less across inland areas and sea breezes at
the coast through evening should become light and variable
tonight. Mainly SW-S winds 10 kt or less Saturday with sea
breezes 10-15 kt at the coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Friday night through Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Potential MVFR or lower with SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n9-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas should remain below advisory levels on all the
waters into next week. Ocean seas will subside closer to 3 ft
tonight. For the weekend, ocean seas will be primarily around 2
ft due to a light pressure gradient.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic issues are expected through the weekend with
primarily dry conditions.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase from Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday. There is potential for heavy
rainfall with PW increasing to around or just over 2 inches and
a frontal boundary to focus convective activity, but it is
still too early to be specific with any potential impacts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
On Saturday a moderate rip current risk is forecast for the
ocean beaches, with surf heights 2-3 ft and an onshore flow
increasing to 10-15 kt in the afternoon.
On Sunday the moderate risk should continue for the NYC and
Nassau beaches as late day sea breezes once again increase.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG