138
FXUS61 KOKX 202037
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
437 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore through Sunday with a weak surface
trough remaining over the area. In addition, a weak cold front
approaches from the north on Sunday and likely dissipates before
reaching the area Monday morning. A series of waves of low pressure
will then pass through the region Monday night through Wednesday
night. A low passes to the north Thursday night and Friday sending
a cold front through the region. High pressure builds in for
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Showers thus far along and ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough have been confined to north and west of the Lower Hudson
Valley. There are ML CAPE values of 250-500 J/KG to the north
and west of NYC and as mid and upper level lift works into the
area early this evening expect scattered showers to develop. An
isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out as well. Dry subcloud
air and a mid level cap are limiting factors. The shower activity
is forecast to expand eastward overnight, but once again the
activity should be scattered and brief. Rainfall amounts are
forecast to be less than a quarter inch. Lows overnight will be
near normal in the mid/upper 60s, except around 70 for the NYC
metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect clearing toward daybreak Sunday with some intervals of
clouds through the day. CAMs pointing to some shower development
along a surface trough across the area in the afternoon. These
should be isolated to scattered in nature and closer to the
coast. At the same time, a cold front will be dropping south
across NYS. Highs get into the mid and upper 80s, but cooler
along the south shore of LI with a southerly flow.
The aforementioned cold front get close to the area by daybreak
Monday before lifting back to the north. No precip is expected
with this front. The main focus will shift to a frontal wave
over the Mid Atlantic states. Clouds increase late Sunday night
into Monday. An upper trough over the Midwest will back the
upper flow sending the wave and warm front toward the area late
Monday afternoon. There is a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms, but mainly to west of NYC.
After another night of near normal lows, highs Monday will be
slightly lower due to the increase in cloud cover Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the long term period will be unsettled with a series of
waves of low pressure tracking through the region, possibly along a
weak stationary boundary, from Monday night through Wednesday night.
A deeper low is expected to move north of the Great Lakes and into
southern Canada Thursday night into Friday sending a cold front
across the region. There remains a lot of uncertainty with the
timing of these waves of low pressure and the potential for rounds
of moderate to heavy rainfall with convection that will be
developing each day. These waves will also have impact to the timing
of the cold front for Thursday night into Friday.
The long term period will feature near normal temperatures, with a
slight warmup for next Saturday as high pressure builds into the
region. Humidity levels are expected to be elevated Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains near the today. A surface trough will
linger nearby this afternoon into Saturday night.
VFR conditions for much of the TAF period. There is a chance of
afternoon / early evening showers, especially N and W of the
NYC metro terminals. Will include a TEMPO at KSWF, otherwise,
confidence remains too low at the other terminals to include any
precip at this time. Any showers may briefly drop conditions
below VFR.
SW winds 5-10 kt are expected this afternoon with sea breeze
likely at the coastal terminals between 10-13 kt. Variable to
light WSW winds return late this evening and overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible for any isolated showers this
afternoon/evening
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible in showers.
Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.
Tuesday through Thursday: Periods of MVFR or lower likely with
SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period.
There is a low chance for a brief period of seas reaching 5 ft
east of east Moriches Inlet late Wednesday night into early
Thursday with a long period of S to SW flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A series of waves of low pressure Monday night through
Wednesday night have the potential of producing rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall. It remains too early for any
specifics on timing and areal coverage of heavy rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A moderate rip current risk remains at the ocean beaches into
this evening. There is a low risk for the development of rip
currents at the ocean beaches for both Sunday and Monday.
Minor coastal flood benchmarks may be approached along the
western south shore bays of Nassau and Queens for the Monday and
Tuesday night high tide cycles. There remains a good deal of
uncertainty around this, thus trends in the water level forecast
will need to be monitored for these locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...