856
FXUS61 KOKX 202330
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore through Sunday with a weak surface
trough remaining over the area. In addition, a weak cold front
approaches from the north on Sunday and likely dissipates before
reaching the area Monday morning. A series of waves of low pressure
will then pass through the region Monday night through Wednesday
night. A low passes to the north Thursday night and Friday sending
a cold front through the region. High pressure builds in for
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Showers along and ahead of an approaching shortwave trough
continue to track across northeastern Pennsylvania into
northwestern New Jersey, and eastward across northern
Connecticut. ML CAPE values have lowered to less than 500 J/kg
and the higher surface based CAPE remains north of the region.
As mid and upper level lift continues to move into the region
early this evening expect scattered showers to continue/develop.
An isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out as well through
00Z, however, there chances remain low. Dry subcloud air and a
mid level cap are limiting factors. The shower activity is
forecast to expand eastward overnight, but once again the
activity should be scattered and brief. Rainfall amounts are
forecast to be less than a quarter inch. Lows overnight will be
near normal in the mid/upper 60s, except around 70 for the NYC
metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect clearing toward daybreak Sunday with some intervals of
clouds through the day. CAMs pointing to some shower development
along a surface trough across the area in the afternoon. These
should be isolated to scattered in nature and closer to the
coast. At the same time, a cold front will be dropping south
across NYS. Highs get into the mid and upper 80s, but cooler
along the south shore of LI with a southerly flow.
The aforementioned cold front get close to the area by daybreak
Monday before lifting back to the north. No precip is expected
with this front. The main focus will shift to a frontal wave
over the Mid Atlantic states. Clouds increase late Sunday night
into Monday. An upper trough over the Midwest will back the
upper flow sending the wave and warm front toward the area late
Monday afternoon. There is a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms, but mainly to west of NYC.
After another night of near normal lows, highs Monday will be
slightly lower due to the increase in cloud cover Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the long term period will be unsettled with a series of
waves of low pressure tracking through the region, possibly
along a weak stationary boundary, from Monday night through
Wednesday night. A deeper low is expected to move north of the
Great Lakes and into southern Canada Thursday night into Friday
sending a cold front across the region. There remains a lot of
uncertainty with the timing of these waves of low pressure and
the potential for rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall with
convection that will be developing each day. These waves will
also have impact to the timing of the cold front for Thursday
night into Friday.
The long term period will feature near normal temperatures,
with a slight warmup for next Saturday as high pressure builds
into the region. Humidity levels are expected to be elevated
Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains nearby. A surface trough will linger into
Saturday night.
VFR conditions for much of the TAF period. There is a chance of early
evening showers N and W of NYC. Currently have TEMP for
-SHRA at KSWF and KHPN, with VCSH in for KTEB. Any showers may
briefly drop conditions below VFR. Showers may be isolated to
scattered tomorrow W & N of NYC, but confidence in coverage
and location is too low to include in the TAFs, at this time.
S-SSW winds currently 10-15 kts. Variable to light WSW winds
return later this evening and overnight. Tomorrow, will return
to S 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible for any isolated showers this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible in lingering
showers.
Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.
Tuesday through Thursday: Periods of MVFR or lower likely with
SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period.
There is a low chance for a brief period of seas reaching 5 ft
east of east Moriches Inlet late Wednesday night into early
Thursday with a long period of S to SW flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A series of waves of low pressure Monday night through
Wednesday night have the potential of producing rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall. It remains too early for any
specifics on timing and areal coverage of heavy rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk remains at the ocean beaches into
this evening. There is a low risk for the development of rip
currents at the ocean beaches for both Sunday and Monday.
Minor coastal flood benchmarks may be approached along the
western south shore bays of Nassau and Queens for the Monday and
Tuesday night high tide cycles. There remains a good deal of
uncertainty around this, thus trends in the water level forecast
will need to be monitored for these locations.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...