734
FXUS61 KOKX 210239
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1039 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore through Sunday with a weak surface
trough remaining over the area. In addition, a weak cold front
approaches from the north on Sunday and likely dissipates before
reaching the area Monday morning. A series of waves of low pressure
will then pass through the region Monday night through Wednesday
night. A low passes to the north Thursday night and Friday sending
a cold front through the region. High pressure builds in for
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor changes were made to the forecast to account for the
current location of showers in the Lower Hudson Valley. They
are expected to continue to diminish through 6Z, but some CAMs
still have isolated showers over the CWA overnight, so kept
slight chance POPs after 6Z.
The shower activity may expand eastward overnight, but once
again the activity should be scattered and brief. Rainfall
amounts are forecast to be less than a quarter inch. Lows
overnight will be near normal in the mid/upper 60s, except
around 70 for the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect clearing toward daybreak Sunday with some intervals of
clouds through the day. CAMs pointing to some shower development
along a surface trough across the area in the afternoon. These
should be isolated to scattered in nature and closer to the
coast. At the same time, a cold front will be dropping south
across NYS. Highs get into the mid and upper 80s, but cooler
along the south shore of LI with a southerly flow.
The aforementioned cold front get close to the area by daybreak
Monday before lifting back to the north. No precip is expected
with this front. The main focus will shift to a frontal wave
over the Mid Atlantic states. Clouds increase late Sunday night
into Monday. An upper trough over the Midwest will back the
upper flow sending the wave and warm front toward the area late
Monday afternoon. There is a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms, but mainly to west of NYC.
After another night of near normal lows, highs Monday will be
slightly lower due to the increase in cloud cover Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the long term period will be unsettled with a series of
waves of low pressure tracking through the region, possibly
along a weak stationary boundary, from Monday night through
Wednesday night. A deeper low is expected to move north of the
Great Lakes and into southern Canada Thursday night into Friday
sending a cold front across the region. There remains a lot of
uncertainty with the timing of these waves of low pressure and
the potential for rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall with
convection that will be developing each day. These waves will
also have impact to the timing of the cold front for Thursday
night into Friday.
The long term period will feature near normal temperatures,
with a slight warmup for next Saturday as high pressure builds
into the region. Humidity levels are expected to be elevated
Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains nearby. A surface trough will linger into
tonight.
Showers have been removed from TAFs for the rest of the next
with the exception of KSWF where they may continue for a few
more hours. Isolated showers could pop back up overnight, but
coverage is too low to include in the TAFs. Showers will be
isolated to scattered tomorrow W & N of NYC, but confidence in
coverage and location is too low to include in the TAFs, at this
time.
Winds will continue to weaken over the next few hours becoming Variable
to light WSW. Tomorrow, will return to S 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible for any isolated showers that pop up
overnight.
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible in lingering
showers.
Monday: VFR. Potential MVFR for PM/Night in SHRA.
Tuesday through Thursday: Periods of MVFR or lower likely with
SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period.
There is a low chance for a brief period of seas reaching 5 ft
east of east Moriches Inlet late Wednesday night into early
Thursday with a long period of S to SW flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A series of waves of low pressure Monday night through
Wednesday night have the potential of producing rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall. It remains too early for any
specifics on timing and areal coverage of heavy rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk remains at the ocean beaches into
this evening. There is a low risk for the development of rip
currents at the ocean beaches for both Sunday and Monday.
Minor coastal flood benchmarks may be approached along the
western south shore bays of Nassau and Queens for the Monday and
Tuesday night high tide cycles. There remains a good deal of
uncertainty around this, thus trends in the water level forecast
will need to be monitored for these locations.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...