499
FXUS61 KOKX 212329
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front approaches from the north tonight, moving over
the area Monday morning. The front then lifts north as a warm
front on Monday. A series of waves of low pressure will then
pass through the region Monday night through Wednesday night
along a stalled frontal boundary. The boundary weakens late
Wednesday night. A deeper low passes to the north Thursday and
Friday, bringing a cold front across the region Thursday night
into Friday morning. A cold front early on Friday. Weak high
pressure builds in from the west late Friday into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another pop up shower on the ea breeze near Teterboro earlier
has dissipated, With the loss of daytime heating and the
weakening sea breeze not expecting any more showers to develop.
Remainder of the evening and tonight expect dry conditions with
weak high pressure south of the region. Meanwhile, a weak cold
front will approach from the north tonight and passes early
Monday morning.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s and lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary will remain over the region early Monday
morning. This front will lift northward as a warm front during
the late morning/early afternoon. In addition, the region will
remain on the eastern side of a broad upper level trough. A weak
wave will travel along this frontal boundary with a chance of
some showers possible Monday afternoon.
Monday night, a second warm front will lift towards the region from
the south, with an area of low pressure developing along this front.
Most of the forecast guidance has this low passing south and east of
the region. PWATs do increase Monday night to around 1.5 inches, so
any rain Monday night may produce moderate to locally heavy
rainfall. However, it still remains too early for any specifics on
timing and areal coverage of this.
Temperatures on Monday will climb into the lower and middle 80s with
lows Monday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday through Friday will remain unsettled as a series of waves of
low pressure track through the region. The forecast remains rather
similar to previous forecasts, with some uncertainty with the
timing of the waves of low pressure. A deeper low is expected to move
north of the Great Lakes and into southern Canada, and then into the
Canadian Maritime Thursday into Friday. This low will send a cold
front across the region Thursday night into Friday morning. With a
humid airmass across the region there will be the potential for
rounds of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall with any of the waves
of low pressure, and the area is in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. After the frontal passage
high pressure will be building in from the west, bringing a drier
airmass to the region.
The long term period will feature near normal high temperatures,
with overnight lows slightly above seasonal normal as dew points will
remain in the mid 60 to possibly into the lower 70s. Dew points
will be somewhat lower, in the lower and mid 60s, Friday through
next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough will remain across the area through this
evening. At the same time, a cold front will drop down from the
north and into the area by daybreak. This front quickly lifts
back to the north Monday as a frontal wave approaches from the
south.
VFR. Chance of MVFR in showers late Monday afternoon/early
evening at the NYC and KSWF terminals then all terminals late
evening/night.
Southerly winds at 10 kt or less at the coastal terminals this
evening will become light and variable as cold front approaches
the area late this evening and overnight. For the Lower Hudson
Valley terminals, winds will generally be light and variable
much of the time. Winds become SE 5-10kt on Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible for any isolated showers that pop up
this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR. Potential MVFR in SHRA.
Tuesday through Thursday: Periods of MVFR or lower likely with
SHRA/TSRA.
Friday: Slight chance of showers in the morning, otherwise VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Wednesday
night.
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday through
Wednesday. With a persistent southwest flow ocean seas may build to
marginal SCA levels Wednesday night into early Thursday. Seas across
the eastern ocean waters may remain elevated through Thursday and
possibly into Thursday night, and then subside as winds become more
westerly late Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The region will be in a humid and unsettled pattern towards mid week
with anomalously high PWATs. Therefore at this time there appears to
be at least a limited risk of localized flash flooding from any
thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. WPC has placed our region in
a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean
beaches this evening through Tuesday. A S to SE swell at 2 to 3
feet will continue early in the week, with the period remaining
under 10 seconds.
Minor coastal flood benchmarks may be approached along the
western south shore bays of Nassau and Queens for the Monday and
Tuesday night high tide cycles.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR/DW
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...