630
FXUS61 KOKX 231145
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple weak areas of low pressure will pass near the area through
Wednesday night. A cold front approaches during Thursday and moves
through Thursday night into early Friday morning. High pressure
builds in from the west Friday and Saturday, then remains into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The area is now mostly dry, with just some lingering light
showers around. Aside from some scattered heavy downpours early
last night, the bulk of the precip passed to the south and east
of the area. The forecast is on track this morning.
The area remains on the eastern side of a broad upper level trough,
with multiple embedded shortwaves expected to move overhead. A
stalled frontal boundary will be lingering over the area, with
multiple waves of low pressure moving through. The first wave is
currently just south of the area, with the heaviest showers and
thunderstorms passing offshore. PoPs lower for the morning
hours.
A mostly cloudy day is expected, but some breaks of sun are possible
late in the day with slight height rises possible in between
shortwaves. Even with the cloud cover, the HREF mean SBCAPE
values peak around 750-1000 J/kg again today. The CAMs all show
some isolated to scattered convective activity during the
afternoon, with the best coverage across the Lower Hudson Valley
and southern CT. Once again, severe thunderstorms are not
expected, but gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible in
any of the stronger showers or thunderstorms that develop.
High temperatures will be right around normal, low to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The next shortwave and associated surface wave of low pressure is
expected to pass near the area late tonight into Wednesday. The
placement of the heaviest precip has shifted south slightly in
the latest guidance and looks to be mostly offshore at this
time. However, showers and thunderstorms are still expected for
at least the southern half of the area and given the moist
environment with pwats around 2 inches, any shower or
thunderstorm could contain heavy downpours. The thinking remains
the same that flash flooding is an isolated risk and poor
drainage and urban flooding is more likely. The heaviest showers
and thunderstorms will exit east in the late morning hours.
We then once again destabilize Wednesday afternoon and scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible the rest of the day given
multiple disturbances passing overhead. Highs on Wednesday will
be a couple of degrees below today`s highs.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough remains from the upper midwest into the
northeast Wednesday night as a weak wave of low pressure will be
moving just north or through the region Wednesday night. With
high precipitable water values remaining across the region any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing briefly heavy
rainfall. And, while the storms are expected to be rather quick
moving, with previous days of heavy rainfall, and convection
potentially tracking over the same regions, the area remains in
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday night. The
upper trough amplifies into the mid Atlantic region Thursday as
a cold front moves southeastward. The upper trough axis shifts
east of the region Thursday night into friday morning with the
passage of the cold front. The marginal risk for excessive
rainfall will continue into Thursday with additional rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall possible, however, precipitable water
values will be lowering slightly.
As the trough moves into the north Atlantic Friday into the
weekend, a highly amplified, and full latitude ridge will builds
into the mid section of the country and track to the east coast
through the weekend and off the coast Monday. With the chance
of a shortwave moving through the periphery of the ridge Monday
have increased probabilities to slight chance across the inland
areas Monday afternoon.
Daytime high temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be near
seasonal normals, and may be slightly above normal for Monday as
high pressure begins to shift off the northeast and mid
Atlantic coast. Overnight lows will be slightly above seasonal
normal Wednesday night, and then near normal for Thursday night
into Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system remains just south or in the vicinity through
Tuesday night.
MVFR to IFR conditions expected through much of the morning,
with a return to VFR by early this afternoon. A brief respite
before MVFR or lower comes back in at the tail end of the
forecast period with the next wave of low pressure bringing in
another round of SHRA. SHRA may also develop across the
interior (KSWF) this afternoon, but is less likely across much
of the rest of the terminals. SHRA move back into the area again
late tonight, which may be heavy at times, bringing conditions
briefly lower than what is forecast. Very low chance of TSRA.
Large uncertainty in wind direction given uncertainty in
position of weak lows, position of the frontal boundary over
the next 24 hours, and the overall general light flow. A E to NE
this morning shifts to the S to SE by late this afternoon at 10
kt or less, then become light and variable for most terminals
once again Tuesday night. Sea breeze development will allow for
a shift to the S earlier than other terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely with flight categories changes. Large
uncertainty in wind direction given track of weak lows, frontal
boundary position, and overall general weak flow.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Thursday: MVFR or lower in SHRA/isolated
TSRA.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible in the morning with SHRA,
otherwise VFR.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and seas/waves
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the weekend.
Periods of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms will be
possible with multiple waves of low pressure passing near the area
through Wednesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With a frontal boundary expected to linger over or near the
area and multiple waves of low pressure passing through, periods
of moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible through the
week. At this time, the risk of flash flooding is low, but can
not be ruled out. WPC continues to outline the entire area in a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall through Thursday. Instances
of minor urban and poor drainage flooding are more likely.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches
will remain through Wednesday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to
8 seconds continues.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...