080
FXUS61 KOKX 241954
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary boundary lingers near the area through tonight, with a
wave of low pressure moving through tonight. A cold front moves
through the area Thursday through Thursday night. High pressure then
builds in from the west Friday and Saturday, pushing offshore
Saturday night into Sunday, and remains offshore into the beginning
of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms are picking back up this afternoon as a
frontal boundary remains in the area. Given this moist airmass, any
stronger shower or thunderstorm that develops could potential
produce rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour. Due to low
confidence in coverage and placement, the overall flash flooding
risk remains low. The WPC continues to outline the area in a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
Precipitation continues into this evening, then slowly wanes
through the night as instability diminishes. Temperatures
tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front will then move through the area Thursday through
Thursday night. The risk for widespread thunderstorms has diminish
with the latest CAMs trending towards a dry forecast on Thursday.
This likely has to do with the progression of the cold front
trending a bit faster. The best shot at any showers or thunderstorms
will probably end up being for eastern zones, as they may be able to
destabilize a bit ahead of the cold front. Again, any stronger
showers or thunderstorm could produce locally heavy rainfall, but
potential for flash flooding remains low.
High pressure will follow Thursday night, providing a break from
this unsettled pattern. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the low
to mid 80s with night time lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds towards the region on Friday bringing us lower
dewpoints and dry conditions. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs
in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. The
high moves over the region on Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday
night into Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Central US
slides east toward the region through the weekend. This will allow a
much more tranquil, and drier pattern to take hold.
The next chance of any precipitation will come on Tuesday into
Wednesday with an approaching shortwave. Depending on the timing and
placement of a potential shortwave rounding the ridge, but even this
is not a guarantee at this point. Will limit POPS to just chance or
slight chance at this time.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm for the weekend, with highs in
the middle to upper 80s. Highs around 90 are possible in the urban
NE NJ corridor by the second half of the weekend into the beginning
of next week. Humidity levels increase again next week as the high
slides offshore and return flow sets up.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A stationary front will linger nearby through tonight and
briefly lifts north as a warm front Thursday before a cold front
passes later in the day.
IFR/MVFR likely returning across all terminals especially after 02
or 03z. Lowest ceilings/visibilities expected at coastal areas where
LIFR possible. A chance of showers and isolated thunder is possible
at any time through the TAF period, however there remains
significant uncertainty exactly where and when. Chances for TS are
very low and not included in the TAF. However, occurrence cannot be
completely ruled out.
SE-S 5-10 kt this evening then become light and variable once again
tonight. Winds then become SW by Thu shifting W-NW around 10 kt
later in the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD likely for flight categories deviating from fcst.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
21z Thursday: Conditions improving to VFR. Isolated SHRA or TSRA
possible.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible in the morning with SHRA, otherwise
VFR.
Saturday through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and seas/waves
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the through the
beginning of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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The area continues to be outlined in a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall today. A washout is not expected, and neither is widespread
heavy rainfall. Any stronger shower or thunderstorm that does
develop could produce heavy rainfall given pwats ranging from 1.75
to 2.00 inches. There continues to be a low risk of flash flooding,
with minor urban and poor drainage flooding instances more likely.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday through the middle of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will
remain through Thursday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8 seconds
continues. Rip activity could be locally high due to the Spring
tides.
Water level guidance was too low with Tuesday night`s high tide
cycle and some locations in the western Long Island Sound ended
up just touching minor. This was likely due to the persistent
easterly flow. Given a similar setup for tonight, went closer to
the NYHOPS 95th percentile for many sites. This gave similar
water levels as Tuesday night. Still thinking the South Shore
Bays should fall just below minor flooding benchmarks, but a
gauge or two may just touch minor across the western Long Island
Sound.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$