915
FXUS61 KOKX 250010
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
810 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary boundary lingers near the area tonight. A cold
front approaches Thursday and moves through Thursday night. High
pressure then builds in from the west Friday and Saturday,
pushing offshore Saturday night into Sunday, and remains
offshore into the beginning of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Isolated shra/tsra activity that fired this afternoon off
Poconos/Catskill will continue to dissipate this evening with
waning diurnal instability. Broken line of tsra across Central
NY/PA along pre-frontal trough will gradually slide east towards
far western portions of the area towards midnight, with gradual
weakening and dissipation expected as it moves into areas NW of
NYC.

Otherwise, just a slight chance of a shower overnight, with
coastal stratus expansion with nocturnal cooling and moist
onshore flow. Patchy fog formation possible with light winds and
moist low-levels, particularly for areas that experienced
rainfall during the day.

Seasonably warm and muggy conditions overnight with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A pre-frontal trough will move through the area Thursday, with
cold front following through Thursday night. The risk for
widespread thunderstorms has diminish with the latest CAMs
trending towards a dry forecast on Thursday. This likely has to
do with a strengthening deep layered westerly flow and gradual
mid-low level drying through peak heating hours. The best shot
at any showers or thunderstorms will probably end up being for
eastern zones, as they may be able to destabilize a bit ahead of
the cold front. Again, any stronger showers or thunderstorm
could produce locally heavy rainfall, but potential for flash
flooding remains low.

High pressure will follow Thursday night, providing a break from
this unsettled pattern. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the low
to mid 80s with night time lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds towards the region on Friday bringing us lower
dewpoints and dry conditions. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs
in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. The
high moves over the region on Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday
night into Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Central US
slides east toward the region through the weekend. This will allow a
much more tranquil, and drier pattern to take hold.

The next chance of any precipitation will come on Tuesday into
Wednesday with an approaching shortwave. Depending on the timing and
placement of a potential shortwave rounding the ridge, but even this
is not a guarantee at this point. Will limit POPS to just chance or
slight chance at this time.

Temperatures will be seasonably warm for the weekend, with highs in
the middle to upper 80s. Highs around 90 are possible in the urban
NE NJ corridor by the second half of the weekend into the beginning
of next week. Humidity levels increase again next week as the high
slides offshore and return flow sets up.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A warm front to the south will lift slowly north and through
the area by daybreak, followed by a cold frontal passage
Thursday evening.

IFR conditions are already in place for KGON and KBDR due to an
east wind bringing lower clouds across LI Sound. It is possible
over the next few hours that KLGA sees a brief period of IFR
before winds become more southerly later tonight. Expect ceilings
to lower a bit more slowly at KISP, where IFR is also expected
overnight. There is bit more uncertainty for the NYC and Lower
Hudson Valley terminals, where there is lower confidence of IFR
conditions. Any IFR/MVFR for these terminals may be more occasional
and of shorter duration. VFR develops fairly quickly for all
terminals Thursday morning as a westerly flow develops behind
the warm front with drier air working into the region. KGON may
be the one exception where lower ceilings may prevail longer
than currently forecast.

SE-S winds less than 10kt this evening become light and variable
across some locations. Winds then become SW in the morning,
gradually veering to the W-NW around 10 kt into the afternoon.
KGON and KBDR may stay more W/SW through the day.

Any showers and/or thunderstorms overnight look to be isolated
to widely scattered. Confidence at this time is too low to
mention in the TAfs.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for flight categories overnight and for wind
shift timing late tonight into Thursday with multiple frontal
passages.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and seas/waves
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the through the
beginning of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The area continues to be outlined in a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall today. A washout is not expected, and neither is widespread
heavy rainfall. Any stronger shower or thunderstorm that does
develop could produce heavy rainfall given pwats ranging from 1.75
to 2.00 inches. There continues to be a low risk of flash flooding,
with minor urban and poor drainage flooding instances more likely.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday through the middle of
next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will
remain through Thursday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8 seconds
continues. Rip activity could be locally high due to the Spring
tides.

The most vulnerable shoreline areas along the south shore of
Nassau County and western Long Island Sound may approach and
touch minor flood thresholds with Tonight high tide.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20/NV
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/20
HYDROLOGY...BC/20
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...