915
FXUS61 KOKX 250010
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
810 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary boundary lingers near the area tonight. A cold front approaches Thursday and moves through Thursday night. High pressure then builds in from the west Friday and Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday night into Sunday, and remains offshore into the beginning of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Isolated shra/tsra activity that fired this afternoon off Poconos/Catskill will continue to dissipate this evening with waning diurnal instability. Broken line of tsra across Central NY/PA along pre-frontal trough will gradually slide east towards far western portions of the area towards midnight, with gradual weakening and dissipation expected as it moves into areas NW of NYC. Otherwise, just a slight chance of a shower overnight, with coastal stratus expansion with nocturnal cooling and moist onshore flow. Patchy fog formation possible with light winds and moist low-levels, particularly for areas that experienced rainfall during the day. Seasonably warm and muggy conditions overnight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A pre-frontal trough will move through the area Thursday, with cold front following through Thursday night. The risk for widespread thunderstorms has diminish with the latest CAMs trending towards a dry forecast on Thursday. This likely has to do with a strengthening deep layered westerly flow and gradual mid-low level drying through peak heating hours. The best shot at any showers or thunderstorms will probably end up being for eastern zones, as they may be able to destabilize a bit ahead of the cold front. Again, any stronger showers or thunderstorm could produce locally heavy rainfall, but potential for flash flooding remains low. High pressure will follow Thursday night, providing a break from this unsettled pattern. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s with night time lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds towards the region on Friday bringing us lower dewpoints and dry conditions. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. The high moves over the region on Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday night into Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Central US slides east toward the region through the weekend. This will allow a much more tranquil, and drier pattern to take hold. The next chance of any precipitation will come on Tuesday into Wednesday with an approaching shortwave. Depending on the timing and placement of a potential shortwave rounding the ridge, but even this is not a guarantee at this point. Will limit POPS to just chance or slight chance at this time. Temperatures will be seasonably warm for the weekend, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Highs around 90 are possible in the urban NE NJ corridor by the second half of the weekend into the beginning of next week. Humidity levels increase again next week as the high slides offshore and return flow sets up. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A warm front to the south will lift slowly north and through the area by daybreak, followed by a cold frontal passage Thursday evening. IFR conditions are already in place for KGON and KBDR due to an east wind bringing lower clouds across LI Sound. It is possible over the next few hours that KLGA sees a brief period of IFR before winds become more southerly later tonight. Expect ceilings to lower a bit more slowly at KISP, where IFR is also expected overnight. There is bit more uncertainty for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals, where there is lower confidence of IFR conditions. Any IFR/MVFR for these terminals may be more occasional and of shorter duration. VFR develops fairly quickly for all terminals Thursday morning as a westerly flow develops behind the warm front with drier air working into the region. KGON may be the one exception where lower ceilings may prevail longer than currently forecast. SE-S winds less than 10kt this evening become light and variable across some locations. Winds then become SW in the morning, gradually veering to the W-NW around 10 kt into the afternoon. KGON and KBDR may stay more W/SW through the day. Any showers and/or thunderstorms overnight look to be isolated to widely scattered. Confidence at this time is too low to mention in the TAfs. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for flight categories overnight and for wind shift timing late tonight into Thursday with multiple frontal passages. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night through Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and seas/waves remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the through the beginning of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... The area continues to be outlined in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall today. A washout is not expected, and neither is widespread heavy rainfall. Any stronger shower or thunderstorm that does develop could produce heavy rainfall given pwats ranging from 1.75 to 2.00 inches. There continues to be a low risk of flash flooding, with minor urban and poor drainage flooding instances more likely. No hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday through the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will remain through Thursday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8 seconds continues. Rip activity could be locally high due to the Spring tides. The most vulnerable shoreline areas along the south shore of Nassau County and western Long Island Sound may approach and touch minor flood thresholds with Tonight high tide.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...20 NEAR TERM...20/NV SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/20 HYDROLOGY...BC/20 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...