okx-afd on 2024-07-24

835
FXUS61 KOKX 250313
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1113 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A warm front passes north of the waters by morning, followed by
a cold frontal passage Thursday evening. High pressure then
builds in from the west Friday and Saturday, pushing offshore
Saturday night into Sunday, and remains offshore into the
beginning of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Warm front was poised just south of the area, while a pre-
frontal trough was approaching from eastern PA and up into
central PA. There was very little activity with either of these
boundaries and latest CAMs are not showing much more than
isolated convection overnight. Warm front is expected to lift
north of the area by daybreak..

Otherwise, coastal stratus will likely be confined to mainly
eastern LI and the CT coast with an onshore flow. Patchy fog
formation possible with light winds and moist low-levels,
particularly for areas that experienced rainfall during the day.

Seasonably warm and muggy conditions overnight with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A pre-frontal trough will move through the area Thursday, with
cold front following through Thursday night. The risk for
widespread thunderstorms has diminish with the latest CAMs
trending towards a dry forecast on Thursday. This likely has to
do with a strengthening deep layered westerly flow and gradual
mid-low level drying through peak heating hours. The best shot
at any showers or thunderstorms will probably end up being for
eastern zones, as they may be able to destabilize a bit ahead of
the cold front. Again, any stronger showers or thunderstorm
could produce locally heavy rainfall, but potential for flash
flooding remains low.

High pressure will follow Thursday night, providing a break from
this unsettled pattern. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the low
to mid 80s with night time lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds towards the region on Friday bringing us lower
dewpoints and dry conditions. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs
in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. The
high moves over the region on Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday
night into Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Central US
slides east toward the region through the weekend. This will allow a
much more tranquil, and drier pattern to take hold.

The next chance of any precipitation will come on Tuesday into
Wednesday with an approaching shortwave. Depending on the timing and
placement of a potential shortwave rounding the ridge, but even this
is not a guarantee at this point. Will limit POPS to just chance or
slight chance at this time.

Temperatures will be seasonably warm for the weekend, with highs in
the middle to upper 80s. Highs around 90 are possible in the urban
NE NJ corridor by the second half of the weekend into the beginning
of next week. Humidity levels increase again next week as the high
slides offshore and return flow sets up.

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A warm front to the south will lift slowly north and through
the area by daybreak, followed by a cold frontal passage
Thursday evening.

IFR conditions remain in place for KGON and KBDR due to an east
wind bringing lower clouds across LI Sound. Expect ceilings to
lower a bit more slowly at KISP, where IFR is also expected
overnight. There is bit more uncertainty for the NYC and Lower
Hudson Valley terminals, where there is lower confidence of IFR
conditions. Any IFR/MVFR for these terminals may be more occasional
and of shorter duration. VFR develops fairly quickly for all
terminals Thursday morning as a westerly flow develops behind
the warm front with drier air working into the region. KGON may
be the one exception where lower ceilings may prevail longer
than currently forecast.

Winds will be light SE-S or just light and variable overnight.
Winds then become SW in the morning, gradually veering to the
W-NW around 10 kt into the afternoon. KGON and KBDR may stay
more W/SW through the day.

Any showers and/or thunderstorms overnight look to be isolated
to widely scattered. Confidence at this time is too low to
mention in the TAfs.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for flight categories overnight and for wind
shift timing late tonight into Thursday with multiple frontal
passages.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and seas/waves
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the through the
beginning of next week.

.HYDROLOGY...

-- Changed Discussion --No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will
remain through Thursday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8 seconds
continues. Rip activity could be locally high due to the Spring
tides.

The most vulnerable shoreline areas along the south shore of
Nassau County and western Long Island Sound may approach and
touch minor flood thresholds with Tonight high tide.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.he area continues to be outlined in a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall today. A washout is not expected, and neither is widespread
heavy rainfall. Any stronger shower or thunderstorm that does
develop could produce heavy rainfall given pwats ranging from 1.75
to 2.00 inches. There continues to be a low risk of flash flooding,
with minor urban and poor drainage flooding instances more
likely.NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...20/DW
NEAR TERM...20/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/20
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//