316
FXUS61 KOKX 250604
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front passes north of the waters by morning, followed by
a cold frontal passage Thursday evening. High pressure then
builds in from the west Friday and Saturday, pushing offshore
Saturday night into Sunday, and remains offshore into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track. Warm front is currently lifting north
over the region and was located just north of Long Island and
into southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and northern
NJ. Expect the warm front to slowly lift north through the
night. There continues to be very little activity with the warm
front and latest CAMs continue to show not much more than
isolated convection overnight.
Otherwise, coastal stratus will likely be confined to mainly
eastern LI and the CT coast with an onshore flow. Patchy fog
formation possible with light winds and moist low-levels,
particularly for areas that experienced rainfall during the day.
Seasonably warm and muggy conditions overnight with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A pre-frontal trough will move through the area Thursday, with
cold front following through Thursday night. The risk for
widespread thunderstorms has diminish with the latest CAMs
trending towards a dry forecast on Thursday. This likely has to
do with a strengthening deep layered westerly flow and gradual
mid-low level drying through peak heating hours. The best shot
at any showers or thunderstorms will probably end up being for
eastern zones, as they may be able to destabilize a bit ahead of
the cold front. Again, any stronger showers or thunderstorm
could produce locally heavy rainfall, but potential for flash
flooding remains low.
High pressure will follow Thursday night, providing a break from
this unsettled pattern. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the low
to mid 80s with night time lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds towards the region on Friday bringing us lower
dewpoints and dry conditions. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs
in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. The
high moves over the region on Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday
night into Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Central US
slides east toward the region through the weekend. This will allow a
much more tranquil, and drier pattern to take hold.
The next chance of any precipitation will come on Tuesday into
Wednesday with an approaching shortwave. Depending on the timing and
placement of a potential shortwave rounding the ridge, but even this
is not a guarantee at this point. Will limit POPS to just chance or
slight chance at this time.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm for the weekend, with highs in
the middle to upper 80s. Highs around 90 are possible in the urban
NE NJ corridor by the second half of the weekend into the beginning
of next week. Humidity levels increase again next week as the high
slides offshore and return flow sets up.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front to the south will lift slowly north and through
the area by daybreak, followed by a cold frontal this evening. .
IFR to VLIFR conditions remain in place for KHPN, KGON, and
KBDR due to a light and variable to light east wind bringing
lower clouds across LI Sound. MVFR ceilings at KISP lower to IFR
and possibly LIFR before morning. There is more uncertainty how
far west and with the timing of lower ceilings moving into the
NYC metro terminals, and have low confidence in the forecast for
these terminals.
VFR develops fairly quickly for all terminals early this morning
as winds shift to the southwest and west as the warm front
lifts through the region. Late afternoon into early this evening
winds then shift to the NW behind a cold front. Occasional
gusts 15 to 20 kt are possible this afternoon into this evening.
Any showers and/or thunderstorms overnight are expected to be
isolated and have not included in the forecast. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be a little more widespread this
morning into the early afternoon ahead of the cold front and
have included a VCSH. And with low confidence in the forecast
have not included thunderstorms.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is uncertainty how low and had far west MVFR to IFR
ceilings will be through 10Z, and have ow confidence in the
forecast. Afterwards, with winds shifting to the southwest and
then west ceilings are expected to be VFR.
Amendments likely for flight categories overnight and for wind
shift timing into this morning with multiple frontal passages.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late Thursday night through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and seas/waves
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the through the
beginning of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will
remain through Thursday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8 seconds
continues. Rip activity could be locally high due to the Spring
tides.
The most vulnerable shoreline areas along the south shore of
Nassau County and western Long Island Sound may approach and
touch minor flood thresholds with Tonight high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/20/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/20
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...