893
FXUS61 KOKX 251141
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
741 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches today and moves through this evening.
High pressure then builds in from the west for Friday and the
first half of the weekend. High pressure moves offshore Saturday
night into Sunday, and remains offshore into the beginning of
next week. The high moves farther offshore Tuesday into
Wednesday as a pre frontal trough and cold front approach.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is generally on track. Took out mention of showers
and thunderstorms through 8 am as most of any precipitation
looks to occur over central and southern New Jersey given
current radar and model guidance. Additionally, issued a Dense
Fog Advisory for the Twin Forks of Long Island. Visibility will
be reduced to 1/4 mile or less. Dense fog is expected to
continue until 11 am or prior this morning, gradually improving
as the morning progresses.

Low pressure over southeastern Canada, will slowly trek
northeast into the Canadian Maritimes by this evening. This will
allow a cold front to slowly approach today, moving through
late in the afternoon into the evening.

Synoptic models and CAMs continue to keep much of the
precipitation offshore. This likely has to do with a
strengthening deep layered westerly flow and gradual mid-low
level drying through peak heating hours. The best shot at any
showers or thunderstorms will probably end up being for eastern
zones, as they may be able to destabilize a bit ahead of the
cold front. Additionally, some CAMs are hinting at some heavier
showers that appear to develop along the sea breeze boundary
across easter Long Island that is expected to develop this
afternoon. Perhaps the sea breeze will provide enough lift
trigger some convection. Still, any shower look to be limited in
coverage. Again, any stronger showers or thunderstorm could
produce locally heavy rainfall, but potential for flash flooding
remains low.

More clouds than sun today will keep temperatures near normal
despite being warm sectored, with highs in the lower to middle
80s expected. It will continue to be humid, at least through
much of the morning for most of the forecast area. Dew points
int eh upper 60s to lower 70s will start to slowly decrease from
northwest to southeast from morning onward. By late this
afternoon, dew points should range from the upper 50s to middle
60s for much of the area, except eastern areas, where the front
may not have pushed through there by this time, and humid
conditions are expected to linger for the first few hours of
tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in from the west tonight into
Saturday. An upper level shortwave trough moves through late in the
day Friday into Friday night, but subsidence from the high should
keep conditions dry through this timeframe. Highs will continue to
run at or slightly above normal for this time of year, generally in
the middle 80s. Dew points should fall into the 50s for the entire
area. Went a couple of degrees below the NBM as it typically does
not go low enough in regards to dew points and how dry the air
typically is behind cold fronts. Saturday will see dew points come
up slightly, but should still be less humid than recent days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A relatively quiet pattern will be in place from Saturday night
into the beginning of next week as a strong upper ridge builds
toward the east coast, and then shifts offshore. Meanwhile, a
weak cutoff low remains along the New England coast into Monday,
and then is expected to drift east and become absorbed into a
shortwave in the northern stream Monday night into Tuesday. The
shortwave then remains into Wednesday as energy rotates through
the region.

Dry weather will continue Saturday night into Tuesday morning
with temperatures near or slightly above seasonal normals. And
with a relatively dry airmass heat indices will remain near the
air temperatures. Then with the shortwave moving into the region
there will be chances for precipitation later Tuesday into
Wednesday. Humidity levels begin to increase again toward the
middle of next week as the high slides offshore and a return
flow sets up.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front was slowly moving through Long Island, and to
coastal Connecticut early this morning. The front will continue
to slowly move northward through this morning. A cold front
moves through this evening.

VFR at the NYC metro terminals, with brief MVFR possible early.
To the east IFR to locally LIFR ceilings will be improving to
VFR by 14Z. There are timing uncertainties with improvement to
VFR, and this will depend on the movement of the warm front.

E/SE winds ahead of the warm front shift to S and SW, then to
W behind the front. Late afternoon into early this evening
winds then shift to the NW behind a cold front. Occasional gusts
15 to 20 kt are possible this afternoon into this evening in the
NYC metro area.

Showers become more widespread this morning as the warm front
lifts north and a pre frontal trough tracks through the region.
There better chances for showers is from the NYC terminals and
east. with low confidence on the timing and areal extent of
showers have opted to keep VCSH. And have left out thunderstorms
with any storms expected to be isolated.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Any remaining MVFR ceilings will quickly improve to VFR, and
remaining VFR through the forecast. Scattered showers will be
possible throughout the day, and an isolated thunderstorm will
be possible this afternoon, mainly KJFK. Winds shift S to SW,
then W this morning, and occasional gusts up to 20 kt will be
possible, with more frequent gusts at KEWR.

Amendments possible for flight categories early this morning,
and for wind shift timing into this morning.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 11 am across
Peconic and Gardiner`s bays, the central and eastern sound, and
the eastern ocean zone. Visibility will be reduced to 1 NM or
less through this time.

With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and seas/waves
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the through the
beginning of next week. However, ocean waters may briefly touch
5 ft tonight behind the passage of a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will
remain through Thursday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8 seconds
continues. Rip activity could be locally high due to the Spring
tides.

The most vulnerable shoreline areas along the south shore of
Nassau County and western Long Island Sound may approach and
touch minor flood thresholds with Tonight high tide.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ079-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-
     340-350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...