072
FXUS61 KOKX 251732
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
132 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches today and moves through this evening.
High pressure then builds in from the west for Friday and the
first half of the weekend. High pressure moves offshore Saturday
night into Sunday, and remains offshore into the beginning of
next week. The high moves farther offshore Tuesday into
Wednesday as a pre frontal trough and cold front approach.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few heavier showers have developed across northern CT and
interior NJ early this afternoon ahead of an advancing cold
front just beginning to push into the LoHud Valley. This
activity will attempt to work south and east into late day, and
can`t rule out isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
locally into the early evening. Highest chance for coastal
areas on east, but not all will see wet weather. Perhaps more
noticeable, drier air behind the fropa will gradually begin to
filter in, dropping dew points and allowing a much less humid
regime to set up. Forecast remains on track and previous
discussion follows.
Low pressure over southeastern Canada, will slowly trek
northeast into the Canadian Maritimes by this evening. This will
allow a cold front to slowly approach today, moving through
late in the afternoon into the evening.
Synoptic models and CAMs continue to keep much of the
precipitation offshore. This likely has to do with a
strengthening deep layered westerly flow and gradual mid-low
level drying through peak heating hours. The best shot at any
showers or thunderstorms will probably end up being for eastern
zones, as they may be able to destabilize a bit ahead of the
cold front. Additionally, some CAMs are hinting at some heavier
showers that appear to develop along the sea breeze boundary
across easter Long Island that is expected to develop this
afternoon. Perhaps the sea breeze will provide enough lift
trigger some convection. Still, any shower look to be limited in
coverage. Again, any stronger showers or thunderstorm could
produce locally heavy rainfall, but potential for flash flooding
remains low.
More clouds than sun today will keep temperatures near normal
despite being warm sectored, with highs in the lower to middle
80s expected. It will continue to be humid, at least through
much of the morning for most of the forecast area. Dew points
int eh upper 60s to lower 70s will start to slowly decrease from
northwest to southeast from morning onward. By late this
afternoon, dew points should range from the upper 50s to middle
60s for much of the area, except eastern areas, where the front
may not have pushed through there by this time, and humid
conditions are expected to linger for the first few hours of
tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in from the west tonight into
Saturday. An upper level shortwave trough moves through late in the
day Friday into Friday night, but subsidence from the high should
keep conditions dry through this timeframe. Highs will continue to
run at or slightly above normal for this time of year, generally in
the middle 80s. Dew points should fall into the 50s for the entire
area. Went a couple of degrees below the NBM as it typically does
not go low enough in regards to dew points and how dry the air
typically is behind cold fronts. Saturday will see dew points come
up slightly, but should still be less humid than recent days.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A relatively quiet pattern will be in place from Saturday night
into the beginning of next week as a strong upper ridge builds
toward the east coast, and then shifts offshore. Meanwhile, a
weak cutoff low remains along the New England coast into Monday,
and then is expected to drift east and become absorbed into a
shortwave in the northern stream Monday night into Tuesday. The
shortwave then remains into Wednesday as energy rotates through
the region.
Dry weather will continue Saturday night into Tuesday morning
with temperatures near or slightly above seasonal normals. And
with a relatively dry airmass heat indices will remain near the
air temperatures. Then with the shortwave moving into the region
there will be chances for precipitation later Tuesday into
Wednesday. Humidity levels begin to increase again toward the
middle of next week as the high slides offshore and a return
flow sets up.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front had lifted through most terminals and was in
progress pf passing through KGON at 13Z. LIFR cond at KGON
should improve to VFR by 16Z, and any leftover MVFR cigs should
do the same elsewhere E of the NYC metros by 14Z or 15Z.
Isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers expected mainly
from the NYC metros east a pre-frontal trough moves through,
with vicinity mention. Can`t entirely rule out thunder and or
brief heavy rain/IFR vsby with any heavier cells.
Winds at the metros mainly W-NW less than 10 kt from the NYC
metros north/west should settle in around 10 kt this
afternoon, and an ocnl G15-20 kt is possible. Afternoon sea
breezes at or just under 10 kt expected this afternoon at
KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. Winds shift NW with cold fropa this
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may briefly shift W-NW at KJFK this morning before a SW
sea breeze develops.
Isolated to widely sct showers are possible this afternoon, and
an isolated tstm can not be ruled out especially at KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and seas
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the through
the beginning of next week. However, ocean waters may briefly
touch 5 ft tonight behind the passage of a cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will
remain through Thursday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8 seconds
continues. Rip activity could be locally high due to the Spring
tides.
The most vulnerable shoreline areas along the south shore of
Nassau County and western Long Island Sound may approach and
touch minor flood thresholds with Tonight high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP/DR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG/MET
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...