331
FXUS61 KOKX 260008
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
808 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front passes east of the waters this evening. High
pressure then builds in from the west on Friday, before slowly
drifting east through early next week. An offshore low may track
east and northeast of the area Sunday night into Monday. This will
be followed by a slow moving frontal system approaching Tuesday
into Wednesday, and then sliding east to end the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Low pressure over southeastern Canada treks north and east into
the Canadian Maritimes, with its trailing cold front pushing
east southeast of the region this evening.
Frontal passage has been dry thanks to a drying vertical profile
this afternoon in wake of pre-frontal trough. Noticeably drier
air will continue to filter on gusty nw flow tonight, dropping
dew points into the mid 50s for much of the area.
Gusty NW flow may keep low-levels mixed and limit radiational
cooling, but could potentially see temps across far outlying
areas drop into the lower to mid 50s if winds decouple.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the frontal passage, a drier, more tranquil, regime sets up
into this weekend. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes Friday
slides over the region Saturday, before shifting offshore Saturday
night. Aloft, a lingering trough exits offshore and heights begin to
quickly climb Saturday as ridging over the Upper Great Lakes
translates eastward.
Abundant sunshine expected both afternoons with perhaps a bit of
diurnal cu development, but even this may be limited with subsidence
from the nearby high. Temperatures will be quite seasonable for late
July, with afternoon highs generally around the mid 80s, and parts
of the urban NE NJ corridor getting into the upper 80s. The real
difference however will be dew pts, largely in the 50s to near 60,
which will allow much more comfortable conditions relative to the
high humidity experienced much of this week. Overnight lows fall
back into the 60s for most, though 50s are likely in parts of Orange
Co and the LI Pine Barrens, with potentially decent radiative
cooling conditions setting up. Dry conditions persist through this
period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Models in fairly good agreement with NE US coast upper troughing
developing into a large but weak cutoff upper low that drifts NW
across the area Sun into Mon, before eventually shearing NE Tuesday
ahead of next approaching trough from the Central US.
At the surface, weak high pressure is expected to preside over the
area to start the weekend, and likely to end the weekend. The one
caveat is that latest model trends are for low pressure to develop
well of the Carolina coast along a stalled offshore front Sat/Sat
night, in response to developing the upper low, and retrograde N/NW
towards the NE US coast Sun into Mon. Low confidence on the model
evolution of this low with inherent NWP convective parameterization
predictability issues with this upper low over the gulf stream. At
this point, NBM, GEFS, CMC, ECE ensemble QPF probs of > 1/2" of
rain in 24 hr for the Sun/Mon periods are very low (10% of
less). With that said, deterministic and ensemble trends bear
watching through the weekend, with a non-zero potential for
heavy rainfall and strong winds (particularly southeastern
areas) if more intense and landward migrating scenarios bear
out.
Independent of this feature, deepening southerly flow ahead of
approaching Central US shortwave will bring increasingly humid
conditions to the region Mon thru Wed. N/NW shearing closed low will
bring potential for isolated diurnal shra/tsra activity for much of
the region. Less convectively active conditions potentially Tuesday
in wake of shearing low and well ahead of approaching frontal system
front from the west. Increased potential for shra/tsra activity
Wednesday into Wed night with approach and passage of shortwave
trough and associated pre-frontal trough, and then cold front.
Isolated diurnal shra/tsra threat could continue on Thu, with
lingering troughing aloft and weak cold front in the vicinity.
Highs generally near seasonable through midweek (mid to upper 80s
interior, lower to mid 80s coast). Potential for heat to continue to
build late week into weekend, as noted by CPC in 8 to 14 day
outlook, in response to strengthening subtropical ridging across both
the SW/SC US as well as western Atlantic, centered near Bermuda.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes through early this evening. High pressure
will then build in from the west.
VFR. Winds shift NW to NNW (right of 310 mag) at 10kt or less
after the cold frontal passage and remain there into Friday
afternoon. Occasional gusts 15-18kt are possible the first half
of tonight and then 15-20 kt after 14Z-15Z. Coastal locations
will likely see some backing of the flow to the W/SW in response
to weak troughing in the afternoon. A true seabreeze at this
time seems less likely.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 15-18kt behind cold front through 06Z.
Occasional gusts 15-18kt from 14Z-19Z Friday.
Low confidence on seabreeze development Friday afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night through Sunday Monday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
S wind G15-20kt.
Tuesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. S wind G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Ocean seas may occasionally build to as high as 5 ft through
this evening with a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, with a weak
pressure gradient over the area, winds and waves remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria through the weekend.
Low probability of an offshore low Sun Night into Mon bringing
SCA conds to eastern ocean waters. Persistent southerly flow
early to mid next week will likely remain below SCA levels, but
could see occasional gusts to 25 kt near and adjacent to
entrance to NY Harbor each afternoon with coastal jet formation.
Ocean seas may build to 5 ft week by midweek in persistent
fetch.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.
Low predictability on hydrologic impacts for early to mid next week
with a slow moving frontal system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will
remain through Friday morning as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8
seconds continues. Gradual subsiding of this swell should reduce rip
risk to low risk on Saturday, although rip activity could be locally
moderate due to the Spring tides.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/NV
NEAR TERM...DR/NV
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/NV
HYDROLOGY...DR/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...