891
FXUS61 KOKX 261116
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend. A
weak offshore low pressure may approach the area from the
southeast late Sunday and may track into the region Monday.
High pressure then remains offshore through the week as a
frontal system slowly approaches from the west, moving into the
region late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only slight adjustments to
temperature and dew point to account for the latest
observations.
A cooler and drier airmass is filtering in from the northwest as
high pressure begins to move in behind the departing cold front that
pushed through overnight. Dew points through the day will be
generally in the 50s with highs in the low 80s under mostly sunny to
clear skies, making for a fairly comfortable day for the entire
area.
High pressure moves closer to the area tonight so winds are expected
to relax a bit more. A calmer wind with dew points in the 50s may
allow for some areas to radiationally cool tonight, especially more
interior and outlying areas. Lows tonight will be generally in the
60s, but interior areas that are able to cool a bit more may drop
into the upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend should be largely dominated by the high pressure system
moving over the area. Mostly clear skies are expected each day
with highs in the middle 80s to near 90 for the NYC metro,
especially on Sunday. Dew points will gradually increase back
into the 60s Saturday night and into Sunday which may result in
some localized fog development during the late night for cooler
and coastal areas. Much of the area however should remain dry
and mainly clear.
A weak low pressure system positioned off of the Mid-Atlantic coast
may approach the area late Sunday night which may increase chances
for a rain shower, especially for eastern and coastal areas,
but due to uncertainty in strength, positioning, and timing,
kept any PoP low for the time being going into Monday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is uncertainty with the track and strength of an offshore low
Monday as the ECMWF brings the low into the region while the GFS
keeps the low well to the east. Meanwhile the NAM is an outlier with
a deeper low drifting northward south of Long Island. This
uncertainty arise from a weak cutoff low that develops from energy
moving into a weak upper trough developing under a highly amplified
ridge that builds toward the east coast Monday. With the steering
flow really weak, and the placement of the ridge the drift of the
offshore low remains highly uncertain.
The upper ridge moves offshore Tuesday and remains into the end of
the week, drifting farther east Friday. Meanwhile, the upper cutoff
low eventually is absorbed into another shortwave that tracks around
the western periphery of the ridge. With the ridge in place, and
with little movement the next upper shortwave and associates frontal
system will be slow to approach from the west through the forecast
period. The frontal system may move into the region by Friday, and
will be dependent on the weakening of the offshore ridge. While
there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms through the long
term period there will also be periods of dry weather.
A warm and increasingly more humid airmass will be in place through
the extended period, with daytime temperatures near seasonal levels
Monday and Tuesday, and then several degrees above normal for
Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows will remain above seasonal
normal through the extended period, especially in the urban areas.
With the increased humidity toward the end of the week there is a
chance that heat indices will be at or a few degrees above 95 toward
the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will build in from the west through Saturday, and
then move offshore Saturday night. The high remains offshore
through the weekend.
VFR.
Winds generally NW 10-13kt may back a little more to the WNW this
afternoon. There is a chance that late day sea breezes develop along
the Connecticut coast and at KJFK, possibly into KISP where winds
become more SW. However, confidence is low in any sea breezes
developing. Winds will be light tonight and become northerly at
he NYC metro terminals while the outlying terminals remain light
and variable.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts, 15-20kt, at KEWR, KTEB, KLGA into this afternoon. Gusts
may be more occasional at KTEB and KLGA.
There is a chance of a late day sea breeze at KJFK and
indicated in the forecast, although confidence is low.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. S wind G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds in through
this weekend allowing for a weak pressure gradient over the
area. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches will
remain through Friday as a 3 to 4 ft S/SE swell at 7 to 8
seconds continues. Gradual subsiding of this swell should reduce
rip risk to low risk on Saturday, although rip activity could
be locally moderate due to the Spring tides.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...