001
FXUS61 KOKX 261432
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build from the west through Sunday. Offshore
low pressure may approach from the southeast late Sunday into
Monday. High pressure will then remain offshore through the
week. A frontal system will move into the region from the west
late in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast mostly on track. Made adjustments from current obs,
including hanging onto cirrus canopy over the NYC metro area and
Long Island into early afternoon as it drifts slowly north.
A cooler and drier air mass is filtering in from the northwest
as high pressure builds in. Dewpoints today will be generally in
the 50s with high temps in the lower 80s under mostly sunny
skies, making for a fairly comfortable day.
Winds should relax tonight as the high moves closer. This plus
dewpoints in the 50s should promote radiational cooling
tonight, especially for the more interior and outlying areas.
Lows tonight will be generally in the 60s, but interior areas
that are able to cool a bit more may drop into the upper 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The weekend should be largely dominated by the high pressure
system moving over the area. Mostly clear skies are expected,
with highs from the mid 80s to near 90 for the NYC metro,
especially on Sunday. Dewpoints will gradually increase back
into the 60s Saturday night and into Sunday which may result in
some localized late night fog development for cooler and coastal
areas.
Low pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coast may approach late
Sunday night, which could increase chances for rain showers,
especially for eastern and coastal areas. Due to uncertainty in
strength, positioning, and timing of this low, kept any PoP low
for the time being going into Monday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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There is uncertainty with the track and strength of an offshore
low Monday as the ECMWF brings the low into the region while
the GFS keeps the low well to the east. Meanwhile the NAM is an
outlier with a deeper low drifting northward south of Long
Island. This uncertainty arises from a weak cutoff low that
develops from energy moving into a weak upper trough developing
under a highly amplified ridge that builds toward the east coast
Monday, also models possibly overplaying latent heating as the
sfc low crosses the Gulf Stream. With the steering flow really
weak, and the placement of the ridge the drift of the offshore
low remains highly uncertain.
The upper ridge moves offshore Tuesday and remains into the end
of the week, drifting farther east Friday. Meanwhile, the
upper cutoff low eventually is absorbed into another shortwave
that tracks around the western periphery of the ridge. With the
ridge in place, and with little movement the next upper
shortwave and associates frontal system will be slow to approach
from the west through the forecast period. The frontal system
may move into the region by Friday, and will be dependent on the
weakening of the offshore ridge. While there will be chances
for showers and thunderstorms through the long term period there
will also be periods of dry weather.
A warm and increasingly more humid air mass will be in place
through the extended period, with daytime temperatures near
seasonal levels Monday and Tuesday, and then several degrees
above normal for Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows will
remain above seasonal normal through the extended period,
especially in the urban areas. With the increased humidity
toward the end of the week there is a chance that the heat
index will be at or a few degrees above 95 toward the end of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will build in from the west through Saturday, and
then move offshore Saturday night. The high remains offshore
through the weekend.
VFR.
Winds generally NW 10-13 kt may back a little more to the WNW
this afternoon. There is a chance that late day sea breezes
develop along the Connecticut coast and at KJFK, possibly into
KISP where winds become more SW. However, confidence is low in
any sea breezes developing. Winds will be light tonight and
become northerly at he NYC metro terminals while the outlying
terminals remain light and variable.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts 15-20kt at KJFK KEWR, KTEB, KLGA into this afternoon.
These gusts may be more occasional than frequent at KTEB and
KLGA.
There is a chance of a late day sea breeze at KJFK as indicated
in the forecast, although confidence is low.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. S winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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High pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds in through
this weekend allowing for a weak pressure gradient over the
area. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday, though
will have to watch for potential impact from an offshore low
that could bring SCA cond if it moves more directly toward the
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches will remain
through Friday as a 3-ft S/SE swell at 7-8 seconds continues.
Gradual subsiding of this swell should reduce the risk to low on
Saturday, although rip activity could still be locally moderate
due to spring tides.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD/MET
MARINE...BG/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW