669
FXUS61 KOKX 262200
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
600 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly build toward the
area through Sunday. Offshore low pressure may approach from the east
Sunday night into Monday before dissipating over New England.
Another low will then track through the Great Lakes, sending a
frontal boundary toward the region mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry and comfortable evening with low humidity. The high clouds
in place gradually shifts offshore, allowing clear skies to
develop tonight. Forecast remains on track and previous discussion
follows.
Cirrus canopy over Long Island and NYC metro should remain in
place into tonight, but still it should be mostly clear night.
Diminishing winds and dewpoints in the 50s will promote
radiational cooling tonight, especially for the more interior
and outlying areas. Low temps tonight will be generally in the
60s around the NYC metro area, across western Long Island and
almost most of the CT coast, and in the 50s elsewhere including
the Long Island Pine Barrens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weekend should be largely dominated by high pressure. Mostly
clear skies are expected, with highs on Sat in the mid/upper
80s, and 85-90 on Sunday, with the warmest readings over NE NJ,
NYC and in the interior CT river valley. Dewpoints in the 50s
away from any afternoon sea breeze influence closer to the coast
mean apparent temps in most places will actually be lower than
ambient temps especially on Sat, less so on Sunday as dewpoints
start to creep up to the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Can`t rule out some patchy ground fog late Sat night mostly
across eastern Long Island, SE CT, and the valleys of Orange
County, as temps fall to late day dewpoint values.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:
* Weak low pressure in the Atlantic may brush the region as the
system moves inland over New England, potentially bringing
increased cloud cover and the chance for rain showers Monday
and Tuesday
* More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms midweek
with a frontal system approaching from the west
* Increasing heat and humidity late next week, heat indices may
approach or exceed 95F at times across portions of the region
After a relatively quiet few days, a more active pattern begins
to take shape in the long term. Lingering energy at the tail
of an offshore trough cuts off and meanders over the western
Atlantic to start the week as ridging builds over the Northeast.
Global guidance retrogrades the developing surface low back to
the west, potentially tracking near Cape Cod or into southern
New England. The proximity of the low could increase cloud cover
Sunday night through Tuesday, with at least the chance of some
associated shower activity brushing the eastern half of the
region. Still some uncertainty given weak steering and ridge
placement that will need to be resolved, but at this time,
impacts appear limited and minor from this system.
Meanwhile, another mid level trough approaches from the west,
helping absorb the meandering weak low into Tuesday, as the
next shortwave works east. With the ridge in place locally, the
associated frontal system will be slow to approach from the
west. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
beginning Wednesday, though exact time periods and duration will
need to be fine tuned as we move closer.
In addition, a warm and increasingly more humid air mass sets up
mid to late next week, with daytime temperatures several
degrees above normal for Wednesday through Friday. With dew pts
returning into the 70s, and air temps in the upper 80s and lower
90s, it`s possible heat indices could approach or exceed 95F
and trigger heat headlines for portions of the region. Still
plenty of time to monitor at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the west through Saturday, and
then move offshore Saturday night. The high remains offshore
through the weekend.
VFR.
Winds generally NW 10-15 kt. Kept gusts in TAF but these should
finally diminish early this evening. Still a chance that an
early evening sea breeze develops along the Connecticut coast
and at KJFK, possibly into KISP where winds become more SW.
Outside chance sea breeze makes it to KLGA and KEWR but winds
should be less than 10 kt if and when that happens. Winds will
be light tonight and become northerly at he NYC metro terminals
while the outlying terminals remain light and variable. Better
chance of a sea breeze developing around 16z Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts near 15kt at KJFK KEWR, KTEB, KLGA early this evening.
There is a chance of a late day sea breeze at KJFK as indicated
in the forecast, although confidence is low.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR....MVFR or IFR possible far eastern
terminals. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered
showers and thunderstorms. S winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet through the weekend with high pressure building from the
Great Lakes.
A weak area of low pressure may develop offshore and track near Cape
Cod into Monday. This could bring increased swells near 5 ft on the
ocean waters early next week.
Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria on all waters through mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gradual subsiding of swell should reduce the rip current risk to
low on Saturday, and this likely persists on Sunday, although
rip activity could still be locally moderate due to spring
tides.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/DR/MW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR