748
FXUS61 KOKX 270318
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1118 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly build toward the
area through Sunday. Offshore low pressure may approach from the east
Sunday night into Monday before dissipating over New England.
Another low will then track through the Great Lakes, sending a
frontal boundary toward the region mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High level clouds over the southern half of the forecast area
will shift slowly south through the night as does the upper
trough axis across the area. Latest temperatures are several
degrees warmer than forecast as radiational cooling has been
limited thus far from the high overcast. As a result, have
raised lows similarly. Low temps tonight will be generally in
the 60s to around 70 across the NYC metro area, western Long
Island and almost most of the CT coast, and in the mid and upper
50s elsewhere including the Long Island Pine Barrens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weekend should be largely dominated by high pressure. Mostly
clear skies are expected, with highs on Sat in the mid/upper
80s, and 85-90 on Sunday, with the warmest readings over NE NJ,
NYC and in the interior CT river valley. Dewpoints in the 50s
away from any afternoon sea breeze influence closer to the coast
mean apparent temps in most places will actually be lower than
ambient temps especially on Sat, less so on Sunday as dewpoints
start to creep up to the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Can`t rule out some patchy ground fog late Sat night mostly
across eastern Long Island, SE CT, and the valleys of Orange
County, as temps fall to late day dewpoint values.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:
* Weak low pressure in the Atlantic may brush the region as the
system moves inland over New England, potentially bringing
increased cloud cover and the chance for rain showers Monday
and Tuesday
* More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms midweek
with a frontal system approaching from the west
* Increasing heat and humidity late next week, heat indices may
approach or exceed 95F at times across portions of the region
After a relatively quiet few days, a more active pattern begins
to take shape in the long term. Lingering energy at the tail
of an offshore trough cuts off and meanders over the western
Atlantic to start the week as ridging builds over the Northeast.
Global guidance retrogrades the developing surface low back to
the west, potentially tracking near Cape Cod or into southern
New England. The proximity of the low could increase cloud cover
Sunday night through Tuesday, with at least the chance of some
associated shower activity brushing the eastern half of the
region. Still some uncertainty given weak steering and ridge
placement that will need to be resolved, but at this time,
impacts appear limited and minor from this system.
Meanwhile, another mid level trough approaches from the west,
helping absorb the meandering weak low into Tuesday, as the
next shortwave works east. With the ridge in place locally, the
associated frontal system will be slow to approach from the
west. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
beginning Wednesday, though exact time periods and duration will
need to be fine tuned as we move closer.
In addition, a warm and increasingly more humid air mass sets up
mid to late next week, with daytime temperatures several
degrees above normal for Wednesday through Friday. With dew pts
returning into the 70s, and air temps in the upper 80s and lower
90s, it`s possible heat indices could approach or exceed 95F
and trigger heat headlines for portions of the region. Still
plenty of time to monitor at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A large area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
tonight will track slowly east through this weekend.
VFR.
Winds will either become light northerly or remain light and
variable through the overnight. Winds will then veer around to
the SE-S at less than 10kt at the coastal terminals on Saturday
as a weakness in the ridge develops. KSWF looks to more
easterly, but light.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts on Saturday may vary by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR....MVFR or IFR possible far eastern
terminals. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered
showers and thunderstorms. S winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet through the weekend with high pressure building from the
Great Lakes.
A weak area of low pressure may develop offshore and track near Cape
Cod into Monday. This could bring increased swells near 5 ft on the
ocean waters early next week.
Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria on all waters through mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A subsiding southerly swell should reduce the rip current risk
to low on Saturday, and this likely persists into Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...