912
FXUS61 KOKX 271624
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1224 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region through tonight, then
remains Sunday. An offshore low approaches eastern Long Island
and the southern New England coast Sunday night into Monday
before dissipating over New England. Several disturbances move
through the area over the week resulting in unsettled conditions
through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough stalls just south and east of the region
as an amplifying ridge moved into the Great Lakes region. The
ridge builds slowly eastward through today, as surface high
pressure builds toward the northeast and mid Atlantic region.
Partly sunny skies this afternoon with sct-bkn aft cu
development off higher elevations, and a light haze from
western wildfire smoke, with near normal temperatures (mid to
upper 80s interior and lower to mid 80s coast). Light northerly
flow, giving way to afternoon coastal seabreeze development.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level cutoff low develops south of Long Island tonight
as the upper ridge and surface high continue to build over the
region. The surface low will be deepening south of Long Island.
There is some uncertainty as where the cutoff low will drift,
however, the consensus is for the upper and surface low to
drift northwestward toward eastern Long Island and the southern
New England coast Sunday night into Monday. And with the low
moving into the strong ridge, the surface low is expected to
weaken and nearly dissipate over New England into upstate New
York during Monday. Have maintained chance probabilities across
mainly the eastern sections Sunday night into Monday, although
these could increase to likely if the consensus remains for the
low to approach the region. Temperatures will be near seasonal
normals tonight through Monday. Monday will be more humid as dew
points rise into the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:
* More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms midweek with
a frontal system approaching from the west
* Increasing heat and humidity late next week, heat indices may
approach or exceed 95F at times across portions of the region
The area remains under an upper-level low Monday night and into
Tuesday as it pushes northward and becomes reintroduced to the large
scale flow. Despite it`s departure, additional mid-level energy
approaches from the west in series which reinforces and maintains
the upper level trough over the area through much of the week. This
will result in unsettled conditions with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms nearly every day through next weekend.
The best chance for showers and storms appears to be mid-week,
generally Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a frontal system pushes
a cold front through the area. It`s much too early to determine if
there will be any hydrologic concerns as models disagree with the
progression of the disturbance, but a moist airmass will allow for
potentially heavy rainfall in any thunderstorms.
The upper level trough remains in place behind the cold frontal
passage with mid-level heights attempting to rise. A surface high
pressure over the Western Atlantic will promote a southerly flow
which will both advect moisture and warmth into the area. This will
likely result in another round of heat index values of 95 to 100
degrees for portions of the area toward the end of the week,
particularly Friday and Saturday, but potentially as early as
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with high pressure over the terminals.
Winds remain light north/northeasterly through midday. Winds
will then veer around to the SE-S at less than 10kt at the
coastal terminals this afternoon with local sea breezes after
18-19Z. KSWF looks more easterly, but light. Winds then return
to light and variable tonight and through Sunday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR....MVFR or IFR possible far eastern terminals.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers
and thunderstorms. S winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory criteria on
all waters today through mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches today through Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/NV
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...