436
FXUS61 KOKX 281538
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1138 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area through this afternoon.
An offshore low approaches southern New England tonight and
moves through New England Monday before dissipating by Monday
evening. Several disturbances move through the area over the
week resulting in unsettled conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is on track this morning with high pressure to the
west. Cloud cover is beginning to advect in from the southeast
over southeastern sections of the area--eastern Long Island and
SE CT--associated with an offshore low. The low is progged to
continue a NW track through the day, resulting in increased
cloud cover and in increased shower chances into mid and late
afternoon. This is mainly for eastern Long Island/Twin Forks and
extreme southeast CT initially, with clouds and shower chances
increasing to the west by this evening as the low continues to
retrograde west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The global guidance, and CAMs, are in good agreement with the
surface low tracking through New England tonight into Monday,
before dissipating late in the day over northern New England.
Meanwhile, the upper low tracks northwestward near eastern Long
Island and through New England, and into southeastern Canada
tonight through Monday night. With measurable precipitation
likely, especially the eastern half of the region, have
increased probabilities to likely, and these may be increased to
categorical later. With the upper low tracking north Monday
night, and some isentropic lift, have kept at least slight
chances through the night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible through the
week.
* Increasing heat and humidity will increase chances for heat
indices approaching and/or exceeding 95F for the second half of
the week.
A departing upper low over the Northeast at the start of the period
will open up a parade of disturbances in the westerlies through the
upcoming week. Throughout the period there will be chances for
showers and thunderstorms. The best chance at this time looks to be
Wednesday/Wednesday night with an incoming upper trough. The
environment during this time will feature marginal to moderate
instability and generally weak deep-layered shear. There are some
timing issues with the global models in how quickly the upper low
lifts out of the Northeast and with the disturbances riding the
westerlies across the norther tier of the conus. PWAT values by
midweek will get up to around 2 inches, so heavy rainfall is a
likelihood with any convection. Still though, it is too early to be
specific with details. Another more organized mid-level disturbance
may approach the area into next weekend.
In addition, it will become increasingly humid through mid week,
likely persist into next weekend. The latter half of the week will
feature highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s with dew points around
70. This results in heat indices 95 or higher for a good portion of
the area. Timing of convection and associated cloud cover will be
complicating factors in the temperatures forecast. The high humidity
will be courtesy of a prolonged period of southerly flow. This will
also keep overnight lows several degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over or near the terminals today. Weak
low pressure approaches the area from the east tonight and
tracks to the northeast on Monday.
VFR through this evening. SHRA likely to overspread the
terminals from E to W between 22z and 04z. Brief MVFR/IFR conds
possible with any SHRA activity, with higher probability of
prevailing MVFR for eastern terminals (KGON, KISP, KBDR) late
tonight through Monday AM. Isolated TSRA possible for NYC/NJ
terminals eastward, but too low prob to include in the TAFS.
Shower activity should become more isolated late morning/early
afternoon, before potential for isolate to scattered SHRA/TSRA
Mon aft/eve, particularly for NYC/NJ metro and interior
terminals.
N/NE winds 7-10kt this morning, giving way to SE seabreeze for
NYC/NJ and coastal terminals this afternoon. Winds gradually
veer to light S/SW overnight into Mon AM push, but may become
variable. Southerly flow of 8 to 12 kt likely Monday, with
potential for 15kt at s coastal terminals Mon aft.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing and coverage of showers tonight into Mon AM push will
likely need amendments, as NYC/NJ metro will be on western edge.
Brief MVFR/IFR possible in any heavy showers. Low potential for
Monday afternoon shra/tsra.
SE winds less than 10 kt for evening push. S/SW winds less
than 10 kt for morning push.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: MVFR or IFR possible in isolated to scattered PM
SHRA/TSRA.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers
and thunderstorms. S winds G15-20kt.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR in afternoon showers/thunderstorms. SW wind
5-10kts.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters today through Monday night. However, with offshore low
pressure approaching the southern New England coast tonight, and
moving through New England Monday, ocean seas east of Fire
Island Inlet may approach 5 feet by late day Monday into Monday
evening. With low confidence, and third into the fourth period
will hold off on an advisory.
Sub SCA conditions likely for mid to late week with a weak pressure
gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the upcoming week. However, it is too early to be
specific with hydrologic impacts.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches today. Monday will likely start off with a low
risk, then with building seas on the ocean due to an offshore
low, the rip current risk increases to moderate during the
afternoon, especially by late in the day.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...DBR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...