504
FXUS61 KOKX 290800
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface low to the east today moves north of the area into this
evening. Another low pressure approaches from the west and
sends a cold front through the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A series of disturbances move through the area Friday
through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread showers remain over the area as a surface low spins east
of the area. Embedded convection may result in locally moderate
to briefly heavy rain for some locations into this morning.
While not likely, isolated thunder is possible, mainly for
eastern areas.
Showers are expected to gradually weaken this morning from west to
east as the surface low pulls north and the forcing over the
area weakens. Despite weakening showers in the morning, there
will remain a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
through much of the day with ample low level moisture in place
under an upper-level trough allowing for the development of weak
to moderate instability.
Much of the day will remain cloudy, especially for northeastern
areas. Southwestern skies may improve into the afternoon. Highs
today will be in the middle to upper 70s for the eastern half of the
area and most of southern Connecticut. NE NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley and the NYC metro will see highs in the middle 80s. Lows
tonight will be warm with temperatures falling only into the
lower 70s to upper 60s for northern areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The low that impacted the area on Monday moves well north by
Tuesday with a lingering upper level trough over the area.
Another mid-level shortwave approaches the area from the west on
Tuesday which reinforces the upper-level trough remaining over
the area. The lower heights aloft combined with a moist boundary
layer will result in the potential development of additional
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, though without a primary
forcing mechanism, any showers or thunderstorm activity likely
won`t be organized. The best chance to see any precipitation
will be for western areas later in the day and into Tuesday
evening as the frontal system approaches from the west. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 80s.
The frontal system continues its way into the area on Wednesday
with a better chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity during the day and into Wednesday evening as the cold
front moves through the area. The anticipated shower/storm
activity with mostly cloudy skies should prevent temperatures
from rising more than the low to middle 80s. Timing of the cold
frontal passage varies a bit but by late Wednesday night, the
front is expected to be east of the area with drying conditions
and clearing skies.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:
* Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms late week into the
weekend.
* Increasing heat and humidity will increase chances for heat
indices approaching and/or exceeding 95F for Thursday through
Sunday.
An active northern stream Friday into Sunday will send multiple
shortwave troughs across the forecast area. Weak ridging Thursday
along with warm advection will allow heat and humidity to build
across the region. There is a chance of late day and evening showers
and thunderstorms Thursday, mainly inland.
Another upper level trough will send a weak disturbance into the
area late Friday into Friday night. With a mid and upper level
trough remaining to the west of the region Saturday another
disturbance moves through the region during the timeframe. Heat, and
increasing humidity, will remain in place for Friday through Sunday.
With the possibility of multiple days reaching heat indices of at
least 95 degrees across at least northeastern New Jersey, the lower
Hudson Valley, New York City, and portions of western Long Island,
heat advisories may be needed for late in the week and into the
upcoming weekend. There will be little relief at night as
temperatures are expected to be several degrees above normal, in the
upper 60s to the lower and mid 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure tracks along the New England coast through this
morning, then dissipates over northern New England this afternoon.
Another weak low, or trough of low pressure remains to the west of
the area into tonight.
Generally VFR, with showers. Brief MVFR is possible with any of the
showers, and local IFR is also possible. Showers taper off, becoming
more scattered mid to late morning. And, by late afternoon into the
early evening there is another chance of thunderstorms at the NYC
metro terminals.
A light southerly flow will prevail through the forecast period.
Winds overnight at the outlying terminals are light and variable.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible for timing of showers, and low potential for
MVFR conditions. Thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon
into the evening, with amendments possible for timing.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Monday Night: Mainly VFR. A chance of MVFR to IFR in -SHRA and
stratus.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. S winds G20-25kt possible for coastal terminals.
MVFR/IFR stratus potential, particularly for coastal terminals and
overnight/AM.
Thursday and Friday: VFR. A chance of MVFR in afternoon
showers/thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and waves will be below SCA levels today but an increase
in southerly winds on the ocean waters late this afternoon and
tonight will allow wave heights to build to around 5 feet. As
such, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight and into
early morning Tuesday. Waves should subside below 5 feet Tuesday
morning. While there may be an occasional gust to near 25 kt
for the western ocean zones, it should be brief and localized
enough to not warrant an additional advisory or extension of the
existing one.
An increasing and persistent south to southwest flow will allow for
ocean seas to build to SCA levels late Friday night into
Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday into Wednesday and again heading into the weekend. While
widespread hydrologic impacts are not expected, it is not out of
the question that localized urban and poor drainage flooding
occur in any heavier and more persistent downpours.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday through next
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strengthening southerly flow Monday and Tuesday in
conjunction will a building swell will produce a moderate rip
current risk at the ocean beaches. opted to keep a moderate
risk of rip currents on Tuesday but there remains the potential
for a high risk of rip currents as the swells take on a more
southerly approach to the shore increasing the amplitude of
waves in the surf zone.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...