559
FXUS61 KOKX 021756
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
156 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure system will be moving in with its front today
and will linger across the area going through this weekend. Weak
high pressure builds into the region on Monday before another
cold front passes through the area Monday night. The front
remains in close proximity to the area through midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main adjustment was for PoPs this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms popping up along seabreeze and older existing
boundaries, primarily north and west of the city early this
afternoon. Shortwave lift will then increase chances generally
west to east laster this afternoon into evening. Heavy downpours
with localized flash flooding possible, but mostly minor/poor
drainage flooding anticipated. Rainfall rates could briefly
approach 2 inches per hour, but the forward motion of storms is
just enough to preclude the likelihood of flash flooding in most
spots. Pulse severe with an isolated strong/severe wind gust
possible as shear remains relatively weak, but MLCAPEs are
1000-2000 J/kg.
Dewpoints and heat indices are running higher than previously
anticipated over eastern LI, where a heat advisory is currently
not in effect, but there will be areas where the heat advisory
reaches at least 95 degrees. Heat advisories remain unchanged.
High temperatures mostly around 90 with dewpoints in the mid
70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat advisory continues for much of the same areas as listed in
near term for Saturday until 7pm that evening. Models show a
lull in convection for morning into early afternoon with some
weak ridging in mid levels before more convection develops and
moves through late with approach of the mid level shortwave.
Airmass will remain very humid with mid to upper 90s heat
indices forecast for many locations once again.
The stronger low pressure system continues to move into the area
tonight. The associated cold front will be moving within the region
from west to east.
The cold front appears to come to a halt within the region for the
weekend.
For tonight, the convection moves across the region from west
to east, bulk of it during the evening hours. Drying conditions
overnight gradually re-establish in the area. Moisture laden low
levels and very humid airmass along with lightening winds
expected to result in patchy fog development overnight into
early Saturday morning.
Next round of showers and thunderstorms appears to be late
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
More showers and thunderstorms develop Sunday into Sunday evening
within the forecast region.
These next rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem to be tied
to positive vorticity maxima making their way into the local
region ahead of and along a mid level trough. Main trough axis
gets to the local region by Sunday.
Bulk shear increases more for this weekend so thunderstorms
could produce strong to possibly severe wind gusts in addition
to heavy rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure briefly builds in for Monday ahead
of a cold front approaching from the NW. The airmass looks to be
drier and more stable, thus chances of convection along the
front late in the day and at night are low.
There is a bit more uncertainty heading into midweek with the
potential for a tropical system near the Southeast coast. It is too
early to specify the interaction with the frontal boundary close the
area for the midweek period. There will be low chances for
convection at this time. The associated tropical disturbance is
being monitored by the NHC for development over the Greater
Antilles. Please refer to the latest NHC products for the monitoring
of this system.
The warmest day in the long term will be Monday with highs in the
upper 80 to lower 80s. By mid week, temperatures will remain in the
upper 70s and 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system approaches the region today.
Mainly VFR this afternoon. Scattered SHRA and TSRA around the
area early this afternoon. TSRA become more likely after 20-21Z
with MVFR or lower conditions and perhaps some gusty winds. TSRA
weaken and become SHRA after 00Z and as they progress eastward.
Mostly dry tonight with low stratus and possible fog development
after 03Z for most of the area. MVFR/IFR conditions likely
overnight and into Saturday AM. Return to VFR for the NYC
terminals after 14Z with eastern terminals remaining in IFR/MVFR
conditions most of the morning.
General southerly winds 10-15kt during the afternoon. Occasional
gusts up to 20 kt are possible. Thunderstorms may shift wind and
become locally gusty this afternoon and evening. Winds diminish
tonight, becoming light and variable at most terminals. Winds
then return out of the SW/S Saturday morning at around 10kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon, then a
better chance of thunderstorms after 20Z. A stronger
thunderstorm with gusty winds is possible. Timing of category
changes tonight may be off by an hour or two.
Southerly winds may become occasionally gusty at KEWR, KLGA, and
KTEB, up to 20kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in afternoon/evening
SHRA/TSRA.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of SHRA/TSRA.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in SHRA/TSRA
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through much of Saturday. Southerly
fetch builds ocean seas to near SCA levels Saturday afternoon
and at SCA levels by late afternoon for parts of the ocean. More
SCA level ocean seas forecast thereafter through the rest of the
weekend. Wind gusts could also potentially get to SCA levels for
portions of the waters especially for late Saturday afternoon,
Saturday night and into the latter half of this weekend.
Seas will gradually diminish Monday in a weakening flow and a
diminishing southerly swell.
Swells from a potential tropical system off the Southeast coast
could impact the ocean waters later next week. Please refer to
the latest NHC products for the monitoring of this system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms could lead to some
locally heavy downpours going through this weekend. WPC has a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for much of the region
today, with a slight risk west of the Hudson. Mainly minor
urban and poor drainage flood impacts potential with PWATs
exceeding 2 inches. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled
out each day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches continues
today into Saturday, due to a residual 3-ft swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>010.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ069>075-078-080-
176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...