398
FXUS61 KOKX 022034
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
434 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure and a stalled frontal boundary will be in the
vicinity through this weekend. Weak high pressure across the area
Monday will then give way to a cold front that slowly sags south
and east and through the midweek. At the same time, a potential
tropical cyclone works northeast along the southeast coast.
This could impact the position of the front and whether or not
it stalls across the area. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
information on this potential storm.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Convection weakens heading into this evening as it shifts east
through the forecast area. Isolated strong to severe gusts are
still possible along with primarily minor/poor drainage
flooding. Best chances of both impacts are early this evening
and from approx the city to points west. Most of the lift with
the shortwave that`s helping drive this convection will shift
north and east of the area overnight with shower/thunderstorm
chances dropping off. Low stratus and patchy fog possible mainly
over eastern LI and SE CT. Muggy overnight with lows in the
70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak low pressure and a surface boundary remain in the vicinity
through this weekend. Both days expected to feature diurnally-driven
convection with the help of shortwave lift aloft. Shear both days
will be fairly weak, so the overall severe thunderstorm threat is
low so far with perhaps isolated pulse severe possible. A somewhat
bigger threat would be flooding, but the flash flooding threat looks
to be only on the isolated side as well with minor/poor drainage
flooding the main mode. Perhaps the flooding threat could increase
on Sunday with the frontal boundary and focused moisture convergence
more likely right over us, but this will also depend on how much
antecedent rainfall occurs.

Max temps at the top of the mixed layer will be slightly cooler on
Saturday versus today, and even cooler on Sunday. Some uncertainty
with cloud cover and subsequent impacts on high temperatures for
Saturday, but dewpoints should once again average in the mid 70s. No
changes to the heat advisory at this time. Not enough confidence in
2-day criteria being met in Orange and Putnam Counties due to
today`s cloud cover/convection and only marginally widespread
forecast heat indices of 95 or higher on Saturday. Therefore, no
extension of the advisory here. A better argument exists to add
eastern Suffolk County and maybe Southern Middlesex Counties to the
advisory based on what could end up occurring for the rest of today
and what is forecast for tomorrow, but not enough confidence here
either to expand the advisory into these zones. For Sunday, the
cooler temperatures preclude the extension of any heat advisory, but
not out of the question that parts of the NE NJ urban corridor
eventually end up with an advisory on Sunday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Quite a bit of uncertainty heading into next week with a potential
tropical cyclone working northeast along the southeast coast.
Please refer to the latest NHC forecast on this potential storm.

A weak upper trough departs from the Northeast Sunday with any
lingering showers/thunderstorms coming to end by the early
morning hours Monday. Thereafter, a nearly zonal flow along the
U.S./Canadian border begins to take a dip across the Great Lakes
and Northeast in the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe. This
will allow a cold front to sag slowly southeast during the time.
Due to quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast, stayed in
line with the NBM which takes the boundary through the area
Tuesday night. This part of the forecast will partly hinge on
the future track of the aforementioned potential tropical cyclone.
The 12Z GFS has trended slower with the frontal passage which
is likely due to the fact it is the fastest and most northern
solution with respect to the tropical system. Thus, expect
there to be some fluctuation with the position in subsequent
forecasts. Furthermore, this boundary may interact with tropical
moisture during the midweek time frame.

The best chance at this time for showers and thunderstorms will
be Tuesday afternoon and night as the front is forecast to
settle south and east through the forecast area. After that,
plan on just having low chances for the rest of the week with
the boundary lingering close to the forecast area. This is too
far out in time to provide any more details than that, but it is
advisable to monitor subsequent forecast, especially as we head
into next week.

Warm, humid conditions will continue Monday into Tuesday, with
a cool down for the second half of the week with the front
forecast to be south of the area. Highs Monday with be well into
the mid 80s to lower 90s (except immediate Atlantic coast), but
perhaps slightly cooler on Tuesday with the approach of the
front.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A frontal system approaches the region today.

Mainly VFR this afternoon. TSRA become more likely after 20-21Z with
MVFR or lower conditions and perhaps some gusty winds. TSRA weaken
and become SHRA after 00Z and as they progress eastward.
Scattered showers dissipate early with mostly dry conditions
expected overnight. Low stratus and possible fog development after
03Z for most of the area. MVFR/IFR conditions likely overnight and
into Saturday AM. Return to VFR for the NYC terminals after 14Z with
eastern terminals remaining in IFR/MVFR conditions most of the
morning.

General southerly winds 10-15kt this afternoon. Occasional gusts up
to 20 kt are possible. Thunderstorms may shift wind direction and
produce locally higher gusts this afternoon and evening. Winds
diminish tonight, becoming light and variable at most terminals.
Winds then return out of the SW/S Saturday morning at around 10kt.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A better chance of thunderstorms after 20-21Z. A stronger
thunderstorm with gusty winds is possible. Timing of category
changes tonight may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday-Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in afternoon/evening
SHRA/TSRA.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of SHRA/TSRA.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in SHRA/TSRA

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions expected on all waters through Saturday morning,
then a southern fetch and building swell push seas on the ocean to 5-
6 feet Saturday afternoon and night. Have issued a SCA for the ocean
Sat aftn and night. Might eventually need to extend the advisory
through at least Sunday.


Marginal SCA conditions may linger on the ocean waters Sunday
night into Monday due to a prolonged southerly fetch and swell.
In addition, the middle of next week could feature building
long period southerly swells from a potential tropical cyclone.
Refer to latest forecast information from the NHC.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms could lead to some
locally heavy downpours going through this weekend. WPC has a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for much of the region each day
through this weekend with a slight risk west of the Hudson for
today. Mainly minor urban and poor drainage flood impacts
potential, but localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out each
day.

There is the potential for heavy rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday
as a frontal boundary interacts with tropical moisture. However,
it much too early for any specific details.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches continues
into Saturday, due to a residual 3-ft swell.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>010.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ069>075-078-080-
     176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...