210
FXUS61 KOKX 050235
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak frontal boundary moves through overnight followed by
another weak cold front Monday, which stalls over the area into
Tuesday. A front pushes just south and east of the area
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a weak area of low pressure
passes south of the area. The frontal boundary and remnants from
a tropical system slowly approach from the south through the
end of the week and into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Showers have moved east and south of Long Island as the weak
surface trough slowly moves offshore. Updated to lower the
probabilities into the overnight. Patchy fog remains possible
with clearing skies and winds becoming light and variable.
Skies gradually become mostly clear overnight as the front
pushes through the area. Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s
for inland areas to the low 70s for the coast and NYC metro.
Areas of fog will be possible tonight with the high moisture in
the boundary layer and cooling due to clearing skies.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The area will remain between an offshore front and another
approaching cold front from the northwest later in the day on
Monday. This will allow for ample sunshine during much of the day.
Highs on Monday will be warm once again with highs across the area
in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s will create heat index values in the early afternoon from 95-99
degrees. Heat advisories are not going to be issued as the heat is
expected to only last for Monday and remain below 100 degree heat
index.
Much of the day will remain dry as the forcing for any showers and
thunderstorms will remain well to the north and west of the area.
While widespread convection isn`t expected, a stray shower or
thunderstorm isn`t entirely out of the question, especially for the
Lower Hudson Valley and NYC metro going into the evening. Lows
Monday night will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Showers and potential thunderstorms become more likely as the focus
of the forcing from the front moves into the area into Tuesday
morning. A tropical moisture feed may enhance the moisture over the
area which may result in a more substantial widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall for Tuesday. WPC has placed the area in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall with SPC placing the area in a marginal risk
for severe storms. With showers and storms around under mostly
cloudy skies on Tuesday, highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to
middle 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A front from Tuesday will stall or slow to our south on Wednesday
morning. As a low pushes east, it may help to push the front just
south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday will continue into Wednesday until the
front has cleared.
Chances for precipitation drop off after Wednesday, and may drop off
further with more model runs if high pressure nudges more into the
forecast area than is currently forecast. However, given uncertainty
in this time frame onward, did not veer too far from NBM.
Thereafter, even more uncertainty in the forecast given the location
of the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby and its interaction with the
frontal boundary leading to uncertainty in placement of any
potential for heavy rain during this time frame, so again stuck
close to the NBM. Therefore, unsettled weather is possible from the
middle of the week through the beginning of next weekend.
Easterly flow develops during this time frame, and in addition to
clouds and rain, this will lead to cooler conditions. Highs during
this time frame may will average below normal, and may not go above
80 for much of the region Wednesday, with slightly warmer, but still
below normal temperatures on Thursday. Conditions will still be
humid, but not like the extremely humid conditions we have been
experiencing as of late.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Weak low pressure, along with a weak front was slowly pushing
offshore. Weak high pressure builds in overnight into early
Monday before a cold front slowly approaches from the north
Monday afternoon and night.
VFR. There is a chance of MVFR fog at the outlying terminals,
with a chance of IFR at KGON with stratus, overnight and into
the early hours of Monday morning.
Winds will be light SW to W, and light and variable outside of
the NYC metro area, overnight. Winds SW Monday with afternoon
sea breezes along the Long Island and Connecticut coasts.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected. Afternoon sea breeze
expected at KJFK and KLGA, within +/- an hour. Sea breezes not
likely at KEWR and KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
inland.
Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in SHRA/TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA.
Friday: Chance of sub-VFR with SHRA/TSRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected to continue through the overnight across all
ocean waters, and just east of Fire Island Inlet through Monday
morning. Otherwise, mainly sub-SCA conditions expected through
Tuesday night, although there will be potential for additional SCA
conditions Monday night into Tuesday for portions of the ocean.
Waves increase mid/late week with building long period southerly
swells from a tropical cyclone. Refer to latest forecast information
from the NHC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There remains a marginal risk of excessive rain for western portions
of the region into this evening. Minor flooding of low lying and
urban areas will be possible. Localized flash flooding cannot be
ruled out. Total rainfall between a quarter to three quarters of an
inch with locally higher amounts possible.
There is the potential for heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday as
a weak area of low pressure moves along a stalled frontal boundary
in the vicinity of the forecast area. However, there remains a good
deal of uncertainty in exactly where the axis of heavy rain will set
up. There will be potential for flooding considering the tropical
airmass but too much uncertainty for to give precise locations of
higher rainfall amounts. WPC has our entire area in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Another round of heavy rainfall is possible for the end of the week
into the beginning of next weekend with the remnants of a tropical
system. There is even more uncertainty with this feature.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip currents is expected to continue through at least
Monday evening, likely into Tuesday. This is due to southerly
swells of around 5 feet.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...