056
FXUS61 KOKX 082127
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
527 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front south of the area begins to lift north as a
warm front late tonight, passing through the area Friday
morning. Tropical depression Debby is forecast to pass well
west and north of the area Friday into Friday night as it
interacts with an approaching frontal system. The associated
cold front will likely pass through the area Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Broad low pressure will remain to the
north from Sat night into mid next week, with high pressure off
to the west, and only a few weak surface trough or cold frontal
passages.
Please refer to the latest official forecast on Debby from the
National Hurricane Center, and later tonight by the Weather
Prediction Center.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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With a stationary front remaining to the south and overrunning
showers possible, especially across the western areas where
better lift exists with weak warm advection, so have maintained
likely to chance probabilities for showers. The front begins to
move north as a warm front late tonight. Meanwhile tropical
depression Debby continues to track northward and will begin
interacting with the frontal boundary, helping to move it
northward tonight. With the showers scattered to numerous have
used areal wording to better convey the possibility of being
dry at times.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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By Saturday morning tropical depression Debby becomes a post
tropical depression as the system continues to interact with the
warm front, and another frontal system tracking through
southerly Canada, merging into the northern system`s cold front.
With the low tracking well to the west there may be periods of
dry weather across the eastern areas of the forecast area during
the day Friday. A strong low level jet develops ahead of the
cold front with the jet increasing to 45 to 55 kt. There is some
uncertainty as to how much mixing of the higher winds to the
ground will be and will be more likely with any developing
strong showers and thunderstorms, especially Friday afternoon
into Friday night. With the potential for the higher winds
gusts as high as 50 MPH, a wind advisory have been issued from
New York City eastward and into coastal Connecticut fro noon
EDT Friday to 1100 PM EDT for metro NYC and southern
Westchester, and through Friday night to the east. However, with
the cold front and low level jet moving quickly eastward the
higher winds may end sooner. Outside of the wind advisory area
there may also be impacts from the winds in stronger storms
especially across northeastern New Jersey where a slight risk of
severe weather as been posted by the Storm Prediction Center.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat with an isolated
tornado also possible.
The trend for a faster system, with less rainfall for the
forecast area, continues, and with the farther west track of
post tropical Debby, the higher rainfall totals will be across
northeastern New Jersey and into the lower Hudson Valley. While
a flood watch has not been posted there still remains a
possibility for scattered areas of flash flooding, and urban
and poor drainage flooding with the heaviest showers late
Friday afternoon into Friday night.
With the front passing east Saturday morning dry weather will be
developing early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A mainly dry period is expected, with plenty of sunshine, and near
to slightly below normal temperatures late this weekend into early
next week as a broad upper trough lingers over the Northeast. The
trough begins to pull out during mid week, with temps rising to a
little above normal by Wed-Thu.
A few surface troughs or weak cold frontal passages are possible
through the middle of next week. The current pattern will hold
tropical air south of the area, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and
lower 60s. With low moisture and weak lift, most of these surface
trough/weak cold frontal passages should be mainly dry, with no
more than 10 or 20 PoP.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stalled front will remain south of the area, pushing
northward tonight into Friday. A frontal system will approach
from the west late Friday.
IFR with showers expected much of the TAF period, becoming a
bit more widespread overnight. There could be some embedded
isolated thunderstorms late tonight into early Friday morning.
Confidence for TSRA has increased somewhat...so will include in
the TAF at this time. There may be a bit of a midday break
Friday with conditions improving to MVFR. SHRA/TSRA return late
Friday as the frontal system approaches from the west.
Torrential rain and gusty winds are likely with any TSRA
throughout the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the E/NE 10-15 kt. By Friday morning, winds
shift more SE and increase 15-20G25 kt. Gusts to 30kt possible
on Friday. Chance of higher gusts KJFK and KISP but will
reevaluate for TAFs as the system evolves. Stronger gusts are
also possible in the vicinity of any TSRA.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of category changes may be off by a few hours.
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible this afternoon.
Embedded isolated thunderstorms possible late tonight into early
Friday morning but timing may be off 1 or 2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z Friday through Saturday morning: MVFR/IFR in TSRA. SE gust
25-30kt possible. Higher gusts possible in the vicinity of any
TSRA. LLWS likely for a brief period late Friday into Friday
night.
Saturday Afternoon through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Ocean seas remain around 5 feet with an easterly flow and an
east to southeast 2 to 3 foot swell, and a SCA remains in effect
through tonight.
As Post Tropical Cyclone Debby passes well to the west and north
Friday into Friday night southeast to south winds will be
increasing along with gusts reaching gale force across all the
forecast waters midday Friday through Friday night, and possibly
into early Saturday morning across the eastern waters as a cold
front crosses the waters Friday night. A gale warning has been
issued for all the waters Friday, and then into Friday night for
all the waters except New York Harbor. The warning may end
earlier Friday night as the cold front and a low level jet move
east. Once the gale warning ends small craft conditions linger
into Saturday morning on the non ocean waters, and on the ocean
into Saturday night as seas remain elevated. Otherwise, quiet
cond should prevail from then into Tue night, with generally
light winds.
Please refer to the latest official forecast on Debby from the
National Hurricane Center, and later tonight by the Weather
Prediction Center.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Isolated to scattered flash flooding will be possible Friday
into Saturday morning, with the overall more likely period for
impacts being late Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour during the heaviest rain is
likely, with rates as high as 2 inches per hour in localized
areas. Rapid responding small stream flooding and urban/poor
drainage flooding will be possible given antecedent
rains/saturated grounds. The overall higher chances for flooding
will be across northeastern New Jersey, into the lower Hudson
Valley where WPC maintain a slight risk of flash flooding. The
remainder of the area is in a marginal risk for flash flooding
with mainly poor drainage and urban flooding is possible. Across
northeastern New Jersey and into the lower Hudson Valley and
portions of New York City may see 1 to 2 inches, with locally as
much as 3 inches, of rainfall, while other areas will see 1 to
1.5 inches with locally 2 to 3 inches possible.
There are no hydrologic concerns from Sat night into mid next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate risk for rip current development remains through this
evening, and increases to a high risk for Friday through
Saturday evening as breaking surf builds to 4 to 11 feet by mid
day Friday and remains at least 7 feet into midday Saturday.
With the high breaking surf a high surf advisory is also in
effect from noon EDT Friday through noon EDT Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
NYZ078>081-177-179.
Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Friday for NYZ071>075-176-
178.
High Risk for Rip Currents from Friday morning through Saturday
evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory from noon Friday to noon EDT Saturday for
NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Friday for NJZ006.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-
332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...