412
FXUS61 KOKX 100026
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
826 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through late tonight into early Saturday
morning. High pressure off to the west builds in for Saturday
into Saturday night. A weak front moves offshore on Sunday,
allowing high pressure to build in west of the area through next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers will continue to push through the forecast area tonight
in association with a cold front. The cold front is expected to
move offshore around daybreak Saturday or a couple of hours
thereafter. South to north warm conveyor belt bands of tropical
showers continue ahead of the line of showers over eastern LI
and eastern CT. There is no longer a threat of tornadoes and the
Tornado Watch has been canceled.
The trend of a faster system has led to lower rainfall amounts.
Only light to locally moderate rain showers are left, which
could locally bring about 0.5in/hr rates.
The Wind Advisory has also been canceled as wind gusts have
lowered significantly with the low level jet now almost east of
the area.
It will be warm and muggy with temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with dew points well into the 70s. In fact, there
are heat indices around 90 at the coast this afternoon.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with some
drier air arriving behind the front late.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A westerly flow on Saturday will bring in a significantly drier
air mass into the region. Cold advection lags behind the front
and the airmass should heat up nicely into the lower and mid
80s. Dew points will be falling through the 60s. Dry conditions
with seasonable temperatures will be on tap for Saturday night.
Lows Saturday night will be near normal, ranging from the upper
50s inland, to the upper 60s along the coast and into NYC. Dew
points should fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, possibly
lower as models typically do not handle the influx of drier air
too well.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak boundary over the region will pass out to sea on Sun as an
upr low reaches QC. The airmass will be moisture starved, so no pcpn
is expected on Sun.
The upr trof will leave suppressed heights across the region thru the
week. Moisture remains limited however, so only some isold aftn
shwrs/tstms modeled across the interior at times. Pops were kept at
slight chance, with the NBM timing followed.
Return flow from the ocean on Fri may add some upslope component and
allow for better coverage of shwrs, but this far out the prob
remains low at only 20-25 percent.
The NBM seemed reasonable for temps thru the extended, with some
cooler temps possible on Fri due to the onshore flow. In general,
low humidity thru the period, with an uptick on Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong cold approaches this afternoon and moves across later this
evening northwest and passes east early Saturday morning.
MVFR ceilings across the region may briefly be IFR, especially
along the coast and later this afternoon., however, low
confidence in flight categories and timing. As a line of
showers and thunderstorms move into the terminals late afternoon
into this evening with IFR conditions likely. After the main
band of showers and thunderstorms a few shower may in in the
area into late tonight with mainly MVFR, and possibly becoming
VFR before the showers end. Gradual improving conditions are
expected late tonight into early Saturday morning as the showers
end. Then VFR Saturday.
S to SE winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt, strongest near the
coast, a few occasional gusts 40-45 kt. Winds should begin
weakening this evening once the front passes and wind direction
shifts to the SW to W. The timing of this shift and weakening
may be off by 1-3 hours in the TAF. Winds become W-WNW early
Saturday morning.
LLWS 45 to 55kt into early this evening ends quickly west to
east late evening into the overnight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence flight category forecast into this evening with
amendments expected, with ceilings mostly MVFR.
Moderate confidence with the timing of main band of showers and
embedded thunderstorms late afternoon into this evening.
Peak gusts 40-45 kt possible 18-00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gales are up for all waters today into tonight. Gales could
come down sooner tonight with an inversion setting up and the
LLJ passing to the east. Seas on the ocean will build to 8 to
10 ft by this evening, with 3 to 6 ft across Long Island Sound.
Seas diminish late tonight but should remain above 5 ft on the
ocean waters for much of Saturday morning, then slowly diminish
to below 5 ft through Saturday night. Once the Gale Warning
ends Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed late tonight
on the non ocean waters, and on the ocean into Saturday night as
seas remain elevated.
Winds and seas are expected to subside blw sca lvls on Sun, and
remain blw criteria through at least Thu with high pres W of the
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
The threat of flash flooding has lowered and mainly light to
locally moderate showers are expected through the rest of
tonight. The heavier showers could bring rates of up to
0.5in/hr.
There are no hydrologic concerns from Sun-Fri.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk for rip currents today through Saturday
evening as breaking surf builds to 5 to 11 feet by mid to late
afternoon and remains at least 7 feet into midday Saturday. A
high surf advisory remains in effect from noon EDT today through
noon EDT Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-340-
345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ338.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...