278
FXUS61 KOKX 100315
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1115 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through late tonight into early Saturday
morning. High pressure off to the west builds in for Saturday
into Saturday night. A weak front moves offshore on Sunday,
allowing high pressure to build in west of the area through next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast mostly on track with only slight adjustments to account
for the latest observations.
Showers will continue to push through the forecast area tonight
in association with a cold front. The cold front is expected to
move offshore around daybreak Saturday or a couple of hours
thereafter. South to north warm conveyor belt bands of tropical
showers continue ahead of the line of showers over eastern LI
and eastern CT.
The trend of a faster system has led to lower rainfall amounts.
Only light to locally moderate rain showers are left, which
could locally bring about 0.5in/hr rates.
The Wind Advisory has also been canceled as wind gusts have
lowered significantly with the low level jet now almost east of
the area.
It will be warm and muggy with temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with dew points well into the 70s. In fact, there
are heat indices around 90 at the coast this afternoon.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with some
drier air arriving behind the front late.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A westerly flow on Saturday will bring in a significantly drier
air mass into the region. Cold advection lags behind the front
and the airmass should heat up nicely into the lower and mid
80s. Dew points will be falling through the 60s. Dry conditions
with seasonable temperatures will be on tap for Saturday night.
Lows Saturday night will be near normal, ranging from the upper
50s inland, to the upper 60s along the coast and into NYC. Dew
points should fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, possibly
lower as models typically do not handle the influx of drier air
too well.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak boundary over the region will pass out to sea on Sun as an
upr low reaches QC. The airmass will be moisture starved, so no pcpn
is expected on Sun.
The upr trof will leave suppressed heights across the region thru the
week. Moisture remains limited however, so only some isold aftn
shwrs/tstms modeled across the interior at times. Pops were kept at
slight chance, with the NBM timing followed.
Return flow from the ocean on Fri may add some upslope component and
allow for better coverage of shwrs, but this far out the prob
remains low at only 20-25 percent.
The NBM seemed reasonable for temps thru the extended, with some
cooler temps possible on Fri due to the onshore flow. In general,
low humidity thru the period, with an uptick on Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong cold front moves across the terminals this evening and
passes east early Saturday morning.
Mainly MVFR to IFR cigs. Gradual improvement in cigs overnight
with VFR expected for most terminals by the morning push, though
there is some uncertainty in how quickly any low stratus can
scatter out. SHRA moving over the terminals now and VCSH
possible for the first half of the overnight before drying out
completely after 06-09Z.
Ahead of the front, S/SE winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Winds
shift to the SW and W overnight and winds diminish. Gusts should
end by morning though there still may be a 10-15kt sustained
wind. Winds may become NW in the morning before veering back to
the W/SW into the afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in timing of flight category changes overnight and
into early Saturday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds have come down over all waters so Gale Warning have been
replaced with Small Craft Advisories through the night.
Seas on the ocean will build to 8 to 10 ft by this evening,
with 3 to 6 ft across Long Island Sound. Seas diminish late
tonight but should remain above 5 ft on the ocean waters for
much of Saturday morning, then slowly diminish to below 5 ft
through Saturday night.
Winds and seas are expected to subside blw sca lvls on Sun, and
remain blw criteria through at least Thu with high pres W of the
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The threat of flash flooding has lowered and mainly light to
locally moderate showers are expected through the rest of
tonight. The heavier showers could bring rates of up to
0.5in/hr.
There are no hydrologic concerns from Sun-Fri.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk for rip currents today through Saturday
evening as breaking surf builds to 5 to 11 feet by mid to late
afternoon and remains at least 7 feet into midday Saturday. A
high surf advisory remains in effect from noon EDT today through
noon EDT Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JT/MW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...