713
FXUS61 KOKX 100521
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
121 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through late tonight into early Saturday
morning. High pressure off to the west builds in for Saturday
into Saturday night. A weak front moves offshore on Sunday,
allowing high pressure to build in west of the area through next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast mostly on track. The cold front continues to move
across the area and should largely be offshore around day break.
Showers should also begin to diminish in coverage, especially as
the front pushes east and drier air works in behind it. Some
locally moderate showers remain possible across eastern Long
Island and southeast CT.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with some
drier air arriving behind the front late.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A westerly flow on Saturday will bring in a significantly drier
air mass into the region. Cold advection lags behind the front
and the airmass should heat up nicely into the lower and mid
80s. Dew points will be falling through the 60s. Dry conditions
with seasonable temperatures will be on tap for Saturday night.
Lows Saturday night will be near normal, ranging from the upper
50s inland, to the upper 60s along the coast and into NYC. Dew
points should fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, possibly
lower as models typically do not handle the influx of drier air
too well.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak boundary over the region will pass out to sea on Sun as an
upr low reaches QC. The airmass will be moisture starved, so no pcpn
is expected on Sun.
The upr trof will leave suppressed heights across the region thru the
week. Moisture remains limited however, so only some isold aftn
shwrs/tstms modeled across the interior at times. Pops were kept at
slight chance, with the NBM timing followed.
Return flow from the ocean on Fri may add some upslope component and
allow for better coverage of shwrs, but this far out the prob
remains low at only 20-25 percent.
The NBM seemed reasonable for temps thru the extended, with some
cooler temps possible on Fri due to the onshore flow. In general,
low humidity thru the period, with an uptick on Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong cold front pushes offshore early this morning. High
pressure then builds in through the rest of the weekend.
Ceilings will begin to improve from west to east through 09z
with the likelihood of VFR around 09-11z for most terminals.
MVFR could linger at KGON through 13z. Otherwise, showers will
continue, mainly east of NYC metro terminals, through 08-10z.
VFR then prevails through tonight.
S-SSW winds will shift to the SW and W behind the front and then
WNW-NW towards 12z. Wind speeds continue to diminish early this
morning, but gusts 20-25 kt may linger through 08-09z at eastern
Long Island and southeast CT terminals. W-WNW winds around 10 kt
likely into the afternoon, but winds could veer towards the
WSW-SW for coastal terminals. A light W-NW flow is likely
tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improvement to VFR may be off by 1-2 hours.
Lower confidence wind direction forecast at KJFK this afternoon.
There is a chance winds remain W or even WNW into the evening.
A few gusts 15-18 kt possible at KEWR and KLGA this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night-Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Small Craft Advisories remain on the waters through the rest of
the night.
Seas diminish late tonight but should remain above 5 ft on the
ocean waters for much of Saturday morning, then slowly diminish
to below 5 ft through Saturday night.
Winds and seas are expected to subside blw sca lvls on Sun, and
remain blw criteria through at least Thu with high pres W of the
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a high risk for rip currents through this evening as
breaking surf builds to 5 to 11 feet by mid to late afternoon
and remains at least 7 feet into midday. A high surf advisory
remains in effect from through noon EDT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ075-080-081-178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JT/MW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...