099
FXUS61 KOKX 100844
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
444 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will pass through early this morning,
with a weak surface low pressure trough lingering in its wake
today. A cold front will pass through tonight, allowing high
pressure to build in and remain in control for much of next
week. A series of surface troughs may then move across at the
end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The weak frontal boundary was still across western CT/Long
Island as of 4 AM, and should move slowly east this morning,
taking any lingering showers with it by daybreak. With drying W
flow and subsidence have sided with warmer guidance for temps
today, with highs well into the 80s, possibly touching 90 in
urban NE NJ. Dewpoints will be falling into the 60s.

CAA takes place tonight with a cold frontal passage. Expect a
wide range of low temps for tonight, from near 70 in NYC, to the
60s most elsewhere, to the mid/upper 50s in the interior
valleys.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure building into the area should result in fair wx
on Sunday with high temps in the lower/mid 80s. Dry air will
continue filtering in, with afternoon dewpoints in the 50s.
Low temps Sunday night should be a little cooler than those
fcst for tonight, generally from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

On Monday, as a deep upper trough moves across ern Canada and
nrn New England, a shortwave trough at the base of the longer
wave trough should move through, with more in the way of clouds
for the afternoon, perhaps a showers, mainly inland during the
afternoon and also across ern CT/Long Island toward evening.
With highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and dewpoints in the 50s
the air mass still on the dry side, have kept PoP no higher than
slight chance.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Key Points:

* Mainly dry conditions are forecast Monday through the end of
  the week with just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
  Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening.

* Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonable levels
  for this time of year.

An upper trough and associated closed low will move off the New
England coast Monday night into Tuesday. Broader troughing and
suppressed heights will remain over the northeast through the
rest of the week. Surface high pressure will largely be in
control. The models have been signaling a fairly well define
shortwave and associated middle level energy pivoting around the
trough late in the week. This may help set up a series of
surface troughs over the area. The relatively cooler pocket of
air aloft may help steepen lapse rates and destabilize the
atmosphere. Will carry a slight to low chance PoP for an
afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm Thursday and Friday,
consistent with the latest NBM.

High temperatures will largely be in the lower 80s with some
mid 80s in NE NJ and NYC Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Sided
closer to the CONSALL dew points as the NBM may be increasing
them too quickly late in the week with a continued NW flow
aloft. Coastal sea breezes may help to increase humidities
somewhat in the afternoon and evening, but still not to the
levels of what has been observed overall in recent weeks.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A strong cold front pushes offshore early this morning. High
pressure then builds in through the rest of the weekend.

Ceilings will continue improving through day break with VFR
expected at most terminals except KGON by 12z. Improvement to
VFR at KGON is likely by 14z with VFR then prevailing at all
terminals through tonight.

Winds will begin shifting to the W-WNW behind the front and then
WNW-NW towards 12-14z. Wind speeds continue to diminish early
this morning. W-WNW winds around 10 kt likely into the
afternoon, but winds could veer towards the WSW-SW for coastal
terminals. A light W-NW flow is likely tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Lower confidence wind direction forecast at KJFK this afternoon.
There is a chance winds remain W or even WNW into the evening.

A few gusts 15-18 kt possible at KEWR and KLGA this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night-Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon/early evening shower.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA continues on the ocean with seas still running 5-8 ft and
some gusts up to 25 kt out east. Winds should diminish but
5+ ft seas should linger into tonight E of Fire Island Inlet.

A weak pressure gradient will the keep winds and seas below SCA
levels through the rest of the week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high rip current risk continues today, with a high surf
advisory through 12 Noon.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ075-080-081-178-
     179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG