471
FXUS61 KOKX 101450
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will pass through early this morning,
with a weak surface low pressure trough lingering in its wake
today. A cold front will pass through tonight, allowing high
pressure to build in and remain in control for much of next
week. A series of surface troughs may then move across at the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.

As of just before 15Z, the frontal boundary is just east of the
forecast area. With drying W flow and subsidence in its wake
have sided with warmer guidance for temps today, with highs well
into the 80s, possibly touching 90 in urban NE NJ. Dewpoints
will be falling into the 60s, with even some upper 50s possible
for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley by this afternoon.

CAA takes place tonight with a cold frontal passage. Expect a
wide range of low temps for tonight, from near 70 in NYC, to the
60s most elsewhere, to the mid/upper 50s in the interior
valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure building into the area should result in fair wx
on Sunday with high temps in the lower/mid 80s. Dry air will
continue filtering in, with afternoon dewpoints in the 50s.
Low temps Sunday night should be a little cooler than those
fcst for tonight, generally from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

On Monday, as a deep upper trough moves across ern Canada and
nrn New England, a shortwave trough at the base of the longer
wave trough should move through, with more in the way of clouds
for the afternoon, perhaps a showers, mainly inland during the
afternoon and also across ern CT/Long Island toward evening.
With highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and dewpoints in the 50s
the air mass still on the dry side, have kept PoP no higher than
slight chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Mainly dry conditions are forecast Monday through the end of
  the week with just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
  Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening.

* Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonable levels
  for this time of year.

An upper trough and associated closed low will move off the New
England coast Monday night into Tuesday. Broader troughing and
suppressed heights will remain over the northeast through the
rest of the week. Surface high pressure will largely be in
control. The models have been signaling a fairly well define
shortwave and associated middle level energy pivoting around the
trough late in the week. This may help set up a series of
surface troughs over the area. The relatively cooler pocket of
air aloft may help steepen lapse rates and destabilize the
atmosphere. Will carry a slight to low chance PoP for an
afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm Thursday and Friday,
consistent with the latest NBM.

High temperatures will largely be in the lower 80s with some
mid 80s in NE NJ and NYC Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Sided
closer to the CONSALL dew points as the NBM may be increasing
them too quickly late in the week with a continued NW flow
aloft. Coastal sea breezes may help to increase humidities
somewhat in the afternoon and evening, but still not to the
levels of what has been observed overall in recent weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in through the weekend.

VFR prevails through the TAF period.

WNW-NW flow increases to around 10 kt late this morning, backing
to the SW along the coast in the afternoon and early evening. A
light NW or N flow is expected tonight, becoming SW on Sunday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible at KEWR and KLGA this
afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon/early evening shower.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean with seas still running 5-8 ft.
Seas 5+ ft should linger into tonight E of Fire Island Inlet.

A weak pressure gradient will then keep winds and seas below
SCA levels through the rest of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues today, with a high surf
advisory for Suffolk through 12 Noon. RCMOS suggests the high
rip current risk may last into Sunday, while NWPS guidance
lowers the risk to moderate. Have split the difference and
continued a high risk for now for the Suffolk beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...BG/JP
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...