340
FXUS61 KOKX 101947
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
347 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary will continue to push slowly east offshore
as high pressure noses in from the southwest tonight through
Sunday night. A trough of low pressure passes through on
Monday, otherwise weak high pressure will be in control for much
of the week. A series of surface troughs may pivot through
towards the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Generally tranquil weather overnight as the cold front offshore
continues to push farther offshore and high pressure noses in
from the southwest. An upper level low and trough over the Great
Lakes and mid-West region weakens as remains nearly stationary.

The only potential problem to the forecast is some of the CAMs
bring some isolated showers across eastern portions of Long
Island and SE CT late tonight into Sunday morning as a weak wave
tries to develop along the old frontal boundary to the south.
However, with only weak lift associated with the wave and
subsidence from incoming high pressure, went with a dry
forecast. However a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out for
these areas and an increase in clouds can be expected. Would not
be surprised if skies become mostly cloudy tonight into Sunday
morning with this feature.

CAA takes place tonight with a cold frontal passage. Expect a
wide range of low temps for tonight, from near 70 in NYC, to the
60s most elsewhere, to the mid/upper 50s in the interior
valleys where conditions should be good for radiational cooling.
Eastern Long Island may not radiate as well due to potential
cloud cover.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure continues to build into the area resulting in
fair weather on Sunday. The upper level low and trough over the
central Great Lakes region will head into southern New England.
However, any precipitation with this system should remain north
and west of the forecast area during the day.

High temperatures should top out in the upper 70s to middle
80s, with afternoon dewpoints falling into the 50s for the
entire area. Low temps Sunday night should be a little cooler
than those forecast for tonight, generally from the mid 50s to
mid 60s, with NYC and coastal areas seeing upper 60s for lows.
Sunday night will likely be a better night for radiational
cooling across eastern Long Island and parts of SE CT away from
the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough pivots through on Monday and exits Monday
night. A broad and less amplified trough attempts to get established
towards the middle of the week. The trough may amplify some towards
next weekend.

Most of the time expect dry conditions through the period. Have
chosen to go above guidance with respect to PoPs on Monday with mid
and upper level energy pivoting through. Otherwise it should be
completely dry Tuesday through Thursday with weak and broad high
pressure established in the lower levels. The global guidance
appears to be favoring a re-introduction to PoPs towards late Friday
and into the start of next weekend with weak convergence lines
attempting to form near the surface. This could trigger some
diurnally driven convection, but coverage this far out remains in
doubt.

Temperatures through much of the period will be slightly below
normal for mid August. Also, dew points will be running lower than
they have been for much of the summer thus far. Towards Friday into
Saturday temperatures may warm by a few degrees with a gradual
uptick in the humidity.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in through the weekend.

VFR prevails through the TAF period.

Westerly flow, SW along the coast, this afternoon with speeds 10 to
15 kt, and city terminals gusting toward 20 kt into early evening. A
light NW or N flow is expected tonight, before becoming SW on Sunday
with speeds near 10 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional today, especially at JFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday PM: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon/early evening shower.

Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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SCA continues on the ocean with seas still running 5-6 ft. Waves
across Sandy Hook to Fire Island inlet should fall below 5 ft
around sunset tonight, while waves E of Fire Island Inlet should
fall below 5 ft a couple of hours after midnight tonight.
Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA
through Sunday night with weak pressure gradient in place.


Weak high pressure will be in control across the waters Monday
through Wednesday. Ocean seas will be up to 3 ft Monday, and
generally closer to 2 ft late Tuesday and Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A 7 second period lingers into Sunday with a moderate risk of rip
currents. The rip current risk drops to low for the more western
ocean beach on Monday, with a moderate risk continuing for the
Suffolk ocean beaches with a 3 to 4 ft component further east.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/JP
HYDROLOGY...JE/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...