074
FXUS61 KOKX 110838
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
438 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will continue to push slowly east offshore
as high pressure noses in from the west through tonight. A low
pressure trough will approach on Monday and pass through by
Monday evening, then weak high pressure will be in control for
much of the week. A series of surface troughs may pivot through
toward the end of the week. The next frontal system may approach
next Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak wave developing along the frontal boundary passing
through has brought clouds beck to much of the NYC metro area.
These should spread mainly east across Long Island and perhaps
coastal CT this morning, otherwise skies today should be partly
to mostly sunny, with some fair wx Cu developing especially NW
of NYC. Light NW-N winds should become light/variable as a lobe
of the high building to the west settles over the area, then
SE-S sea breezes 5-10 mph expected this afternoon, and a SW flow
inland. A fine late summer day expected in terms of temps and
humidity, with highs mostly in the lower 80s, and dewpoints
mostly in the mid/upper 50s.

Skies becoming mostly clear and winds becoming light W-NW
tonight should promote good radiational cooling especially
outside the NYC urban heat island. Temps in NYC should bottom
out in the mid 60s, with lower 60s for most coastal and suburban
spots, and mid/upper 50s well inland and in the Long Island Pine
Barrens.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An upper level trough pivots through on Monday and exits Monday
night, and should bring some afternoon/early evening showers
especially inland. There should also be some modest sfc-based
instability that just barely reaches the equilibrium level on
model fcst soundings, so have also mentioned slight chance of
thunder except for ern Long Island and SE CT. High temps on Mon
should reach the upper 70s/lower 80s, with dewpoints again in
the mid/upper 50s. Lows for Mon night should be the same in most
places, maybe a touch cooler in the outlying areas, where some
isolated lower 50s may be possible.

The stretch of warm and pleasantly dry wx will continue into
Tue, with temps/dewpoints on Tue similar to those fcst for Mon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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No major changes were made to the long term forecast Tuesday night
through next Saturday.

Key Points:

* Mainly dry conditions are expected. There is just a low
  chance of a shower or thunderstorm Thursday, Friday, and
  Saturday afternoon/evening.

* Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonable levels
  for this time of year.

Broad upper level troughing will remain over the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, but should shift off the New England
coast late in the week. Weak surface high pressure largely
remains in control. Cyclonic flow and suppressed heights will
likely remain Thursday and Friday with the trough just to the
east. Some energy will likely pivot around the trough and may
help induce some weak surface troughs Thursday and Friday. These
troughs and associated upper energy may be enough to develop a
shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening both
Thursday and Friday, mainly inland. Coverage remains uncertain
this far out and have capped PoP at slight chance, similar to
the latest NBM.

The trough shifts farther offshore late Friday into the start
of next weekend. Heights may briefly rise before another trough
attempts to establish itself over the northeast next weekend.
This may also help send the next frontal system towards the area
and aid in triggering some showers or possibly a thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures through much of the period will be slightly below
normal for mid August. Dew points will remain lower than they
have been for much of the summer. There may be a slight uptick
in dew points and humidity by next weekend, but still holding
short of seeing dew points in the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR with high pressure in control.

Light WNW-NW flow at NYC terminals with light and variable
elsewhere. Light and variable flow likely continues 12z-15z
before gradually become W-WSW at most terminals except along the
coast where winds should become SW-S. Wind speeds increase to
near 10 kt this afternoon. Winds diminish this evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Variable wind direction 12z-15z, but speeds should remain 5 kt
or less.

Winds at KLGA could remain WNW-NW until around 20z-22z before
shifting to the SW.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Afternoon/early evening shower/thunderstorm
possible.

Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Seas were still flirting with 5 ft near 44025 and 44097 but are
on the decline, so have not re-issued SCA. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient will lead to winds and seas below SCA levels
into late week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Gradually subsiding onshore swell of 3-4 ft with 8-second period
lingers into today, highest east. RCMOS forecasts a high risk
until late afternoon for Hither Hills, and until midday for
Smith Point, which makes sense given the ongoing swell and just
having come off a high risk yesterday. Will go with that
guidance and forecast a moderate risk at other forecast points
for W Suffolk, Nassau, and NYC. Can re-evaluate this as AM beach
reports come in.

The rip current risk should drop to low for the more western
ocean beaches on Monday, with a moderate risk continuing for the
Suffolk ocean beaches with a 2-3 ft swell.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG