413
FXUS61 KOKX 111753
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
153 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will continue to push slowly east offshore
as high pressure noses in from the west through tonight. A low
pressure trough will approach on Monday and pass through by
Monday evening, then weak high pressure will be in control for
much of the week. A series of surface troughs may pivot through
toward the end of the week. The next frontal system may approach
next Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A mid level cloud deck is blanketing much of the coastal region
early this afternoon as a weak wave passes offshore. Conditions
remain dry and otherwise pleasant, with comfortable temps and
dew pts. Forecast on track and previous discussion follows.
A weak wave developing along the frontal boundary to our south
has brought clouds beck to much of the NYC metro area. These
should spread mainly east across Long Island and perhaps coastal
CT this morning, otherwise skies today should be partly to
mostly sunny, with some fair wx Cu developing especially NW of
NYC. Light NW-N winds should become light/variable as a lobe
of the high building to the west settles over the area, then
SE-S sea breezes 5-10 mph expected this afternoon, and a SW flow
inland. A fine late summer day expected in terms of temps and
humidity, with highs mostly in the lower 80s, and dewpoints
mostly in the mid/upper 50s.
Skies becoming mostly clear and winds becoming light W-NW
tonight should promote good radiational cooling especially
outside the NYC urban heat island. Temps in NYC should bottom
out in the mid 60s, with lower 60s for most coastal and suburban
spots, and mid/upper 50s well inland and in the Long Island Pine
Barrens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough pivots through on Monday and exits Monday
night, and should bring some afternoon/early evening showers
especially inland. There should also be some modest sfc-based
instability that just barely reaches the equilibrium level on
model fcst soundings, so have also mentioned slight chance of
thunder except for ern Long Island and SE CT. High temps on Mon
should reach the upper 70s/lower 80s, with dewpoints again in
the mid/upper 50s. Lows for Mon night should be the same in most
places, maybe a touch cooler in the outlying areas, where some
isolated lower 50s may be possible.
The stretch of warm and pleasantly dry wx will continue into
Tue, with temps/dewpoints on Tue similar to those fcst for Mon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major changes were made to the long term forecast Tuesday night
through next Saturday.
Key Points:
* Mainly dry conditions are expected. There is just a low
chance of a shower or thunderstorm Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday afternoon/evening.
* Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonable levels
for this time of year.
Broad upper level troughing will remain over the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, but should shift off the New England
coast late in the week. Weak surface high pressure largely
remains in control. Cyclonic flow and suppressed heights will
likely remain Thursday and Friday with the trough just to the
east. Some energy will likely pivot around the trough and may
help induce some weak surface troughs Thursday and Friday. These
troughs and associated upper energy may be enough to develop a
shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening both
Thursday and Friday, mainly inland. Coverage remains uncertain
this far out and have capped PoP at slight chance, similar to
the latest NBM.
The trough shifts farther offshore late Friday into the start
of next weekend. Heights may briefly rise before another trough
attempts to establish itself over the northeast next weekend.
This may also help send the next frontal system towards the area
and aid in triggering some showers or possibly a thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures through much of the period will be slightly below
normal for mid August. Dew points will remain lower than they
have been for much of the summer. There may be a slight uptick
in dew points and humidity by next weekend, but still holding
short of seeing dew points in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance
approaches tomorrow.
S winds across most terminals expected the rest of this
afternoon as sea breezes have pushed through except for KSWF
where a W flow should prevail. However, the flow may at times
be so light that winds may be light and variable. Wind speeds
should increase later this afternoon to near 10 kt or less.
Winds diminish this evening as they shift to the W-WNW. Outlying
terminals (and even the metro terminals at times) will go light
and variable overnight. W to WNW flow continues Monday morning
to near 10 kt once again. However, there is some uncertainty in
wind direction, especially along the coast as there is the
potential for sea breezes to develop once again. Do not have
this occurring in the forecast just yet.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible due to wind direction being slightly off
from forecast through the rest of the afternoon.
Winds at KLGA could end more NW-N into early this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR. Afternoon/early evening shower/thunderstorm
possible.
Tuesday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will keep winds and seas below Small
Craft Advisory criteria through late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Subsiding onshore swell activity has allowed the rip current
risk to lower to moderate everywhere for the remainder of the
day.
The rip current risk should drop to low for the more western
ocean beaches on Monday, with a moderate risk continuing for the
Suffolk ocean beaches with a 2-3 ft swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/DR/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR