818
FXUS61 KOKX 112236
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
636 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will continue to push slowly east offshore
as high pressure noses in from the west. A trough passes through
on Monday into Monday night, then weak high pressure will be in
control for much of the week. A frontal system approaches
Saturday and likely pivots through on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure continues to build in from the west as
stubborn high and mid level clouds continue to persist across
portions of the area. The more organized and lower level cloud
cover will remain NW of the area. As the mid and upper level
cloud cover pushes northeast later tonight, expect mainly clear
and dry conditions to prevail through tonight.
With a light flow, efficient radiative cooling looks likely in
outlying areas. Overnight lows are progged in the 60s along the
coast, with mid to upper 50s possible once again across the
interior. Blended in the cooler MAV/MET guidance to achieve
this.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper trough pivots through the Northeast on Monday, with a
shortwave rounding the base and swinging through in the afternoon.
At the surface, a 1020 mb high centered over the Midwest continues
to gradually build east.
CAMS hint at widely scattered showers developing in the afternoon
with the shortwave energy and cold pool aloft as the trough moves
through. Best chances of seeing this are across the interior, though
a few may make their way down to the coast. Moisture is
limited, and instability is relatively weak, so not anticipating
much in the way of thunderstorms and have omitted from the
forecast with this update.
Despite some increased cloud cover and a few possible showers, the
day overall should feel quite pleasant, with temperatures around 80
in the afternoon coupling with dew pts in the 50s. Once again, clear
skies and light flow should allow those outside the urban metros to
cool a bit below national blended guidance, utilizing MAV/MET yields
overnight lows falling back into the 50s and 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A broad upper level trough gets anchored just to the east
providing a prevailing NW to N flow throughout much of the
column through mid week. A second area of mid level troughiness
forms over the Great Lakes late in the week and pushes into the
area towards the weekend.
It should be mainly dry Tuesday through Friday with weak and broad
high pressure established in the lower levels. The global guidance
appears to be favoring a re-introduction to PoPs towards Friday
night and into the start of next weekend. The push northeast of a
warm front now looks to get delayed now until the start of the
weekend. Thus minimal to no PoPs are now forecast through the day
Friday. PoPs should gradually increase from late Friday night
through Sunday with a warm front likely, followed by low pressure
and a cold frontal passage later in the weekend.
Temperatures through much of the period will be hovering close to
normal for mid August. Perhaps towards the weekend daytime
temperatures will run a shade below normal due to more cloud cover.
Also, dew points will be running lower than they have been for much
of the summer thus far. Towards Friday into Saturday the humidity
may increase as more of a southerly component to the low level flow
gets established.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control. An upper level disturbance
approaches tomorrow.
S to SW winds will shift to the SW and W into this evening. However,
the flow may at times be so light that winds may be light and
variable. Wind speeds should increase later this afternoon to near
10 kt or less. Winds diminish this evening as they shift to the W-
WNW. Outlying terminals (and even the metro terminals at times) will
go light and variable overnight. W to WNW flow continues Monday
morning to near 10 kt once again. However, there is some uncertainty
in wind direction, especially along the coast as there is the
potential for sea breezes to develop once again. Do not have this
occurring in the forecast just yet.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible due to wind direction being slightly off from
forecast through the rest of the afternoon.
Winds at KLGA could end more NW-N into early this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR. Afternoon/early evening shower/thunderstorm possible.
Tuesday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
An uneventful period on the coastal waters as high pressure
provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind regime
overall. Ocean seas should average close to 2 ft or just below
through Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through this weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Subsiding onshore swell activity has allowed the rip current
risk to lower to moderate everywhere for the remainder of the
day.
Mainly a low rip current risk for all ocean beaches Monday, although
the ocean beaches of Nassau and Queens may experience a brief
moderate risk in the morning. The low rip current risk is expected
to continue on Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...