003
FXUS61 KOKX 120240
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A trough of low pressure will be in the vicinity through Monday
night. Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control for much of
the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated the forecast to include an isolated shower north of the
city, and it might just end up being a stray sprinkle. This
possibility is courtesy of some shortwave lift pivoting through the
northern portion of the forecast area while a surface trough lies
nearby. Varying amounts of cloud cover otherwise across the area,
but generally less cloudy for the late night hours.

Overnight lows are progged in the 60s along the coast, with mid to
upper 50s possible across the coldest spots in the interior.
Blended in the cooler MAV/MET guidance to achieve this.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough pivots through the Northeast on Monday, with a
shortwave rounding the base and swinging through in the afternoon.
At the surface, a 1020 mb high centered over the Midwest continues
to gradually build east.

CAMS hint at widely scattered showers developing in the afternoon
with the shortwave energy and cold pool aloft as the trough moves
through. Best chances of seeing this are across the interior, though
a few may make their way down to the coast. Moisture is
limited, and instability is relatively weak, so not anticipating
much in the way of thunderstorms and have omitted from the
forecast with this update.

Despite some increased cloud cover and a few possible showers, the
day overall should feel quite pleasant, with temperatures around 80
in the afternoon coupling with dew pts in the 50s. Once again, clear
skies and light flow should allow those outside the urban metros to
cool a bit below national blended guidance, utilizing MAV/MET yields
overnight lows falling back into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A broad upper level trough gets anchored just to the east
providing a prevailing NW to N flow throughout much of the
column through mid week. A second area of mid level troughiness
forms over the Great Lakes late in the week and pushes into the
area towards the weekend.

It should be mainly dry Tuesday through Friday with weak and broad
high pressure established in the lower levels. The global guidance
appears to be favoring a re-introduction to PoPs towards Friday
night and into the start of next weekend. The push northeast of a
warm front now looks to get delayed now until the start of the
weekend. Thus minimal to no PoPs are now forecast through the day
Friday. PoPs should gradually increase from late Friday night
through Sunday with a warm front likely, followed by low pressure
and a cold frontal passage later in the weekend.

Temperatures through much of the period will be hovering close to
normal for mid August. Perhaps towards the weekend daytime
temperatures will run a shade below normal due to more cloud cover.
Also, dew points will be running lower than they have been for much
of the summer thus far. Towards Friday into Saturday the humidity
may increase as more of a southerly component to the low level flow
gets established.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure dominates through the TAF period with a surface trough
moving through during Monday.

VFR, but brief MVFR VSBYs possible at KSWF in the next few hours
with the chance of shower passing through. Better chance of MVFR would
be mainly at KGON Monday afternoon in -shra. Chance of afternoon
showers elsewhere are too low for mention in TAFs.

W winds for the city terminals under 10kt, with light and variable
winds elsewhere overnight. Winds on Monday mainly W 10-15kt, and
gusts up to 20kt in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance of a southerly sea breeze direction for a few hours at
KJFK starting at around 18z Mon.

Winds at KLGA could end more NW-N into early this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
An uneventful period on the coastal waters as high pressure
provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind regime
overall. Ocean seas should average close to 2 ft or just below
through Thursday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Mainly a low rip current risk for all ocean beaches Monday,
although the ocean beaches of Nassau and Queens may experience a
brief moderate risk in the morning. The low rip current risk is
expected to continue on Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...