737
FXUS61 KOKX 120744
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A surface trough will move across the area this afternoon and
evening. Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control through
the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The main weather feature today will be an upper level trough
that pivots through the northeast this afternoon and evening.
This will send a surface trough across the area as high pressure
over the Midwest continues to gradually build east.

The day will start out sunny, but clouds should begin to increase
from northwest to southeast into the afternoon as the shortwave
approaches. CAMs continue to hint at isolated to scattered shower
development in the afternoon and early evening. Probabilities are
a bit higher across CT, closer to a bit better forcing and cold
pool aloft from the passing shortwave energy. Cannot rule out a
few making their way down to the coast which several CAMs are
indicating as well. Moisture is limited with dew points in the
upper 50s. Cold pool aloft will help steepen lapse rates, but
instability is weak and mostly below the freezing level. Have
remained persistent with previous forecast leaving out mention
of thunder, but cannot completely rule out an isolated lightning
strike. Highs will be a bit below normal in the upper 70s to
low 80s, warmest near the coast and NYC/NJ metro.

The shortwave pushes offshore in the evening with any shower
diminishing towards sunset. Weak cold advection along with
light winds, and mostly clear skies will lead to a cool night
especially for outlying areas with lows in the 50 to around 60
degrees. Temperatures likely end up closer to normal in the
middle 60s in the NYC metro as winds may not completely drop
off.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper level trough will become anchored just to the east
Tuesday through the middle of the week. The region will lie on
the backside of the trough with cyclonic flow and suppressed
heights aloft. High pressure will remain in control at the
surface. The cyclonic flow will likely lead to scattered
stratocu each afternoon, but no precipitation is expected. There
may also be some thin high clouds at times.

Temperatures on Tuesday will continue below normal in the upper
70s and low 80s. Some moderation is indicated by the latest
model consensus Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Lows
Tuesday night should be closer to normal in the 60s for most
locations. Highs on Wednesday return to seasonable levels in the
low to mid 80s with lows continuing in the 60s Wednesday night.
Given the pattern in place have gone a bit lower than model
consensus with dew points each afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A broad upper level remains anchored just to the east providing
a prevailing NW to N flow throughout much of the column through
mid week. A second area of mid level troughiness forms over the
Great Lakes late in the week and pushes into the area towards
the weekend.

It should be mainly dry with weak and broad high pressure
established in the lower levels. The global guidance appears to
be favoring a re-introduction to PoPs towards Friday night and
into the start of next weekend. The push northeast of a warm
front now looks to get delayed now until the start of the
weekend. Thus minimal to no PoPs are now forecast through the
day Friday. PoPs should gradually increase from late Friday
night through Sunday with a warm front likely, followed by low
pressure and a cold frontal passage later in the weekend.

Temperatures through much of the period will be hovering close to
normal for mid August. Perhaps towards the weekend daytime
temperatures will run a shade below normal due to more cloud cover.
Also, dew points will be running lower than they have been for much
of the summer thus far. Towards Friday into Saturday the humidity
may increase as more of a southerly component to the low level flow
gets established.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak low pressure will be nearby through tonight.

VFR. BKN070 cigs expected this afternoon. A few showers are also
possible late, mainly at/near the NYC metros and out east by
KGON, but cond should still remain VFR.

Winds had shifted NW-W due to an outflow boundary from earlier
showers well to the north. They should back WNW overnight,
then become mainly W-WSW around or just over 10 kt, with some
gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction at KJFK could back more toward 220-230 magnetic
(210-220 true) from about 18Z-23Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind
regime overall through the week. Seas will also remain well
below SCA levels.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming weekend.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches
through this evening. This is due to seas around 3 ft at about a
7-8 sec period with developing S-SSW sea breezes in the
afternoon. The rip current risk is low on Tuesday as seas
subside to 2 ft.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...