340
FXUS61 KOKX 120818
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
418 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough will move across the area this afternoon and
evening. Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control through
the week. A frontal system will approach from the west this
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main weather feature today will be an upper level trough
that pivots through the northeast this afternoon and evening.
This will send a surface trough across the area as high pressure
over the Midwest continues to gradually build east.
The day will start out sunny, but clouds should begin to increase
from northwest to southeast into the afternoon as the shortwave
approaches. CAMs continue to hint at isolated to scattered shower
development in the afternoon and early evening. Probabilities are
a bit higher across CT, closer to a bit better forcing and cold
pool aloft from the passing shortwave energy. Cannot rule out a
few making their way down to the coast which several CAMs are
indicating as well. Moisture is limited with dew points in the
upper 50s. Cold pool aloft will help steepen lapse rates, but
instability is weak and mostly below the freezing level. Have
remained persistent with previous forecast leaving out mention
of thunder, but cannot completely rule out an isolated lightning
strike. Highs will be a bit below normal in the upper 70s to
low 80s, warmest near the coast and NYC/NJ metro.
The shortwave pushes offshore in the evening with any shower
diminishing towards sunset. Weak cold advection along with
light winds, and mostly clear skies will lead to a cool night
especially for outlying areas with lows in the 50 to around 60
degrees. Temperatures likely end up closer to normal in the
middle 60s in the NYC metro as winds may not completely drop
off.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will become anchored just to the east
Tuesday through the middle of the week. The region will lie on
the backside of the trough with cyclonic flow and suppressed
heights aloft. High pressure will remain in control at the
surface. The cyclonic flow will likely lead to scattered
stratocu each afternoon, but no precipitation is expected. There
may also be some thin high clouds at times.
Temperatures on Tuesday will continue below normal in the upper
70s and low 80s. Some moderation is indicated by the latest
model consensus Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Lows
Tuesday night should be closer to normal in the 60s for most
locations. Highs on Wednesday return to seasonable levels in the
low to mid 80s with lows continuing in the 60s Wednesday night.
Given the pattern in place have gone a bit lower than model
consensus with dew points each afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
On Thu, a shortwave trough pivoting around a closed low over
eastern New England and Atlantic Canada my touch off a few
afternoon showers and possibly a tstm across the interior.
Otherwise sfc weak high pressure should remain in control
through Fri, with an upper level ridge also sliding across on
Fri.
A frontal system approaching from the west should bring showers
and possible tstms this weekend, with the best chances each
afternoon/evening from the NYC metro area north/west, with 40-50
PoP forecast there during times of peak heating, otherwise 30
PoP. Dewpoints will also be on the rise with the approach of
this system, with increasingly muggy conditions through the
weekend, but no heat related issues expected as temps remain
near to slightly below normal during this time frame.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak low pressure trough will be nearby through tonight.
VFR. BKN070 cigs expected this afternoon. A few showers are
also possible late, mainly at/near the NYC metros and out east
by KGON, but cond should still remain VFR.
Light/vrb flow should become WNW 5-10 kt after sunrise, then mainly
W-WSW around or just over 10 kt, with some gusts up to 20 kt this
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction at KJFK could back more toward 220-230 magnetic (210-
220 true) from about 18Z-23Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind
regime overall through the week. Seas will also remain well
below SCA levels.
Swells from Potential Tropical Cyclone Five may start to arrive on
Friday depending on its future track and intensity.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week. It is too
early to know what impacts may arise from an approaching
frontal system this weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches
through this evening. This is due to seas around 3 ft at about a
7-8 sec period with developing S-SSW sea breezes in the
afternoon. The rip current risk is low on Tuesday as seas
subside to 2 ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...