509
FXUS61 KOKX 121528
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1128 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will move across the area this afternoon and
evening. Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control through
the week. A frontal system will approach from the west this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast is generally on track. Dew points were a few degrees
lower than forecast. Therefore, trended a bit lower on the dew
points for later today. With lower dew points, there may be more
in the way of virga, however any heavier showers will have some
rain reaching the ground, so did not change POPs for later in
the day.
The main weather feature today will be an upper level
trough that pivots through the northeast this afternoon and
evening. This will send a surface trough across the area as high
pressure over the Midwest continues to gradually build east.
The day will start out sunny, but clouds should begin to
increase from northwest to southeast into the afternoon as the
shortwave approaches. CAM`s continue to hint at isolated to
scattered shower development in the afternoon and early evening.
Probabilities are a bit higher across CT, closer to a bit
better forcing and cold pool aloft from the passing shortwave
energy. Cannot rule out a few making their way down to the coast
which several CAMs are indicating as well. Moisture is limited
with dew points in the upper 50s. Cold pool aloft will help
steepen lapse rates, but instability is weak and mostly below
the freezing level. Have remained persistent with previous
forecast leaving out mention of thunder, but cannot completely
rule out an isolated lightning strike. Highs will be a bit below
normal in the upper 70s/lower 80s, warmest near the coast and
NYC/NJ metro.
The shortwave pushes offshore in the evening with any shower
activity diminishing toward sunset. Weak cold advection along
with light winds, and mostly clear skies will lead to a cool
night especially for outlying areas with lows in the 50s to
around 60. Temperatures likely end up closer to normal in the
mid 60s in the NYC metro as winds may not completely drop off.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will become anchored just to the east
Tuesday through the middle of the week. The region will lie on
the backside of the trough with cyclonic flow and suppressed
heights aloft. High pressure will remain in control at the
surface. The cyclonic flow will likely lead to scattered
stratocu each afternoon, but no precipitation is expected.
There may also be some thin high clouds at times.
Temperatures on Tuesday will continue below normal in the upper
70s and low 80s. Some moderation is indicated by the latest
model consensus Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Lows
Tuesday night should be closer to normal in the 60s for most
locations. Highs on Wednesday return to seasonable levels in the
low to mid 80s with lows continuing in the 60s Wednesday night.
Given the pattern in place have gone a bit lower than model
consensus with dew points each afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Thu, a shortwave trough pivoting around a closed low over
eastern New England and Atlantic Canada may touch off a few
afternoon showers and possibly a tstm across the interior,
mainly across CT. Otherwise sfc weak high pressure should
remain in control through Fri, with an upper level ridge also
sliding across on Fri.
A frontal system approaching from the west should bring showers
and possible tstms this weekend, with the best chances each
afternoon/evening from the NYC metro area north/west, with 40-50
PoP forecast there during times of peak heating, otherwise 30
PoP. Dewpoints will also be on the rise with the approach of
this system, with increasingly muggy conditions through the
weekend, but no heat related issues expected as temps remain
near to slightly below normal during this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface trough will move across this afternoon and evening,
followed by building weak high pressure overnight.
VFR. BKN070 cigs expected this afternoon. A few showers are
also possible late, mainly at/near the NYC metros and out east
by KGON, but cond should still remain VFR. These showers could
produce locally gusty winds to 25 kt.
Light and variable flow should become W 5-10 kt early, then
mainly W-WSW around or just over 10 kt, with some gusts up to 20
kt this afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction at KJFK could back more toward 220-230 magnetic
(210-220 true) from about 18Z-23Z. Any shower directly
impacting any terminal late this afternoon could produce brief
G25kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind
regime overall through the week. Seas will also remain well
below SCA levels.
Swells from Potential Tropical Cyclone Five may start to arrive
on Friday depending on its future track and intensity. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center for details on the
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week. It is too
early to know what impacts may arise from an approaching
frontal system this weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches
through this evening. This is due to seas around 3 ft at about a
7-8 sec period with developing S-SSW sea breezes in the
afternoon. The rip current risk is low on Tuesday as seas
subside to 2 ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...JP/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...