530
FXUS61 KOKX 122219
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
619 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough will move across the area this afternoon and
evening. Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control through
Friday. A weak frontal system slowly approaches from the west
Friday night through Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Line of showers and embedded thunderstorms tracking southward
through Connecticut and into northeastern New Jersey had some
showers and thunderstorms that were producing briefly gusty
winds, up to 35 MPH, and heavy rainfall. Updated for this line
through Connecticut and into Long Island Sound. This line was
associated with a surface through that moves through early this
evening. The activity is also expected to weaken toward, and
just after, sunset.
Dry conditions are then expected for the rest of the night.
Clouds will start off mostly cloudy with the showers in the
area, and these showers are fast moving, and the mostly cloudy
skies should clear out pretty quickly. There are more clouds
upstream, but coverage is not nearly as widespread as what is
currently moving through, so transition to partly clear skies,
then mostly clear later this evening, generally after 8 pm.
As for temperatures, they will run a few degrees below normal
for this time of year thanks to some cold air advection, in the
upper 50s to middle 60s for much of the forecast area. The
outlying areas inland and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island
should radiate well enough to see lows in the lower to middle
50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather expected Tuesday into Tuesday night as high
pressure builds in from the west. A weak upper level trough
moves through Tuesday night, but there looks to be enough
subsidence with the high to preclude any precipitation.
Seasonably cool temperatures continue with continued weak cold
advection. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s, perhaps some middle 80s across NE NJ. Tuesday night may be
a few degrees warmer than Monday night, with lows in the upper
50s to upper 60s. Once again, outlying areas will be cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An upper and mid level trough remains over the northeast and into
the Mid Atlantic Wednesday through Thursday as a surface high and
upper ridge remain nearly blocked by this trough, and move slowly
eastward. A weak shortwave rotates into the eastern upper trough
Thursday, and may be strong enough, with some instability and CAPE
during the afternoon, for a few thunderstorms inland and east. This
trough then slowly tracks eastward into the western Atlantic Friday
night and through the weekend as a frontal system slowly approaches
from the west. The upper pattern remains nearly blocked and the
frontal system with its slow progression may affect the area into
the beginning of next week. The movement of this system may also be
impacted by Tropical Storm Ernesto`s track late in the week and
into the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for forecasts on Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Wednesday through
Friday, and then slightly below for Saturday through Monday with
clouds and precipitation. Humidity levels will be increasing Friday
night into early next week as dew points rise from the lower and mid
60s to the upper 60s to around 70, especially along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surface trough will move across this evening, followed by building
weak high pressure overnight.
VFR. BKN070 cigs expected into this evening. A few showers are also
possible, mainly at/near the NYC metros and out east by KGON, but
cond should still remain VFR. These showers could produce locally
gusty winds to 25 kt.
W-WSW winds 10-15kt with some gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon.
Winds become light and variable tonight. NW winds around 10kt
Tue becoming onshore at coastal terminals around 16z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Light showers near terminals could produce brief G25kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
21z Tuesday-Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Becoming MVFR. Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind
regime overall through Tuesday night. Seas will also remain
well below SCA levels.
With high pressure in control Wednesday through Friday winds and
seas across the forecast waters remain below SCA levels. The
combination of an approaching frontal system Friday night into the
weekend along with increasing long period southerly swell from
Tropical Storm Ernesto will allow for ocean seas to build to
SCA levels by late Saturday into Saturday night. The timing of
the building swells will be dependent on the track and intensity
of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for forecasts on Tropical Storm Ernesto.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week. It is too
early to know what impacts may arise from an approaching
frontal system this weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches through
this evening. A low rip current risk is forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...