016
FXUS61 KOKX 130236
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1036 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough will linger over the area on Tuesday. Weak
high pressure will otherwise be in control through Friday. A
weak frontal system slowly approaches from the west Friday night
through Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Dry conditions are expected for the rest of the night as any
showers/thunderstorms have now moved out of the area.
Temperatures will run a few degrees below normal for this time
of year thanks to some cold air advection, in the upper 50s to
middle 60s for much of the forecast area. The outlying areas
inland and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island should radiate
well enough to see lows in the lower to middle 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather expected Tuesday into Tuesday night as high
pressure builds in from the west. A weak upper level trough
moves through Tuesday night, but there looks to be enough
subsidence with the high to preclude any precipitation.
Seasonably cool temperatures continue with continued weak cold
advection. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s, perhaps some middle 80s across NE NJ. Tuesday night may be
a few degrees warmer than Monday night, with lows in the upper
50s to upper 60s. Once again, outlying areas will be cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper and mid level trough remains over the northeast and into
the Mid Atlantic Wednesday through Thursday as a surface high and
upper ridge remain nearly blocked by this trough, and move slowly
eastward. A weak shortwave rotates into the eastern upper trough
Thursday, and may be strong enough, with some instability and CAPE
during the afternoon, for a few thunderstorms inland and east. This
trough then slowly tracks eastward into the western Atlantic Friday
night and through the weekend as a frontal system slowly approaches
from the west. The upper pattern remains nearly blocked and the
frontal system with its slow progression may affect the area into
the beginning of next week. The movement of this system may also be
impacted by Tropical Storm Ernesto`s track late in the week and
into the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for forecasts on Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Wednesday through
Friday, and then slightly below for Saturday through Monday with
clouds and precipitation. Humidity levels will be increasing Friday
night into early next week as dew points rise from the lower and mid
60s to the upper 60s to around 70, especially along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A surface trough will linger over the area on Tuesday, with weak
high pressure building in thereafter.
VFR.
Winds become light and variable tonight or light out of the NW.
NW winds around 10kt Tuesday becoming W/SW for NYC terminals and
KISP given the surface trough and potential for a sea breeze.
The rest of the terminals likely stay with more of a NW flow.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in sea breeze on Tuesday. Most likely at KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night-Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Becoming MVFR. Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind
regime overall through Tuesday night. Seas will also remain
well below SCA levels.
With high pressure in control Wednesday through Friday winds and
seas across the forecast waters remain below SCA levels. The
combination of an approaching frontal system Friday night into the
weekend along with increasing long period southerly swell from
Tropical Storm Ernesto will allow for ocean seas to build to
SCA levels by late Saturday into Saturday night. The timing of
the building swells will be dependent on the track and intensity
of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for forecasts on Tropical Storm Ernesto.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week. It is too
early to know what impacts may arise from an approaching
frontal system this weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches through
this evening. A low rip current risk is forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JP/MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...