356
FXUS61 KOKX 130549
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
149 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough will linger over the area today. Weak high
pressure will otherwise be in control through Friday. A weak
frontal system will slowly approach from the west from Friday
night into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Dry conditions are expected for the rest of the night.
Temperatures will run a few degrees below normal for this time
of year thanks to some cold air advection, in the upper 50s to
mid 60s for much of the forecast area. The outlying areas inland
and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island should radiate well
enough to see lows in the lower to mid 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Tranquil weather expected today into tonight as high pressure
builds in from the west. A weak upper level trough moves
through tonight, but there looks to be enough subsidence with
the high to preclude any precipitation.
Seasonably cool temperatures continue with continued weak cold
advection. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
perhaps some mid 80s across NE NJ. Tonight may be a few degrees
warmer than Monday night, with lows in the upper 50s to upper
60s. Once again, outlying areas will be cooler.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An upper trough remains over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
Wednesday through Thursday as a surface high and upper ridge
remain nearly blocked by this trough, and move slowly eastward.
A weak shortwave rotates into the eastern upper trough Thursday,
and may be strong enough, with some instability and CAPE during
the afternoon, for a few thunderstorms inland and east. This
trough then slowly tracks eastward into the western Atlantic
Friday night and through the weekend as a frontal system slowly
approaches from the west. The upper pattern remains nearly
blocked and the frontal system with its slow progression may
affect the area into the beginning of next week. The movement of
this system may also be impacted by Tropical Storm Ernesto`s
track late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as it
intensifies. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for
forecasts on Ernesto.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Wednesday through
Friday, and then slightly below for Saturday through Monday
with clouds and precipitation. Humidity levels will be
increasing Friday night into early next week as dew points rise
from the lower and mid 60s to the upper 60s to around 70,
especially along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A surface trough will linger over the area today. There could be
some BKN mid level clouds at times this afternoon, with
flight cat remaining VFR.
NW winds picked up last minute at some of the NYC metros, but
expect them to settle down by 08Z or so, with NW flow less than
10 kt across the board, These winds may veer more northerly for
a time this morning, then once again become NW this afternoon,
with some gusts possible at the NYC metros especially KEWR.
A SW flow should develop later than usual at KJFK/KISP/KGON due
to presence of the trough and a sea breeze attempting to
develop. Slight chance it could also develop at KBDR late in
the afternoon, and this evening at KLGA.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence on sea breeze timing at KJFK this afternoon. A
light SE-S sea breeze may make it to KLGA this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind
regime overall through Tuesday night. Seas will also remain
well below SCA levels.
With high pressure in control Wednesday through Friday winds and
seas across the forecast waters remain below SCA levels. The
combination of an approaching frontal system Friday night into the
weekend along with increasing long period southerly swell from
Tropical Storm Ernesto will allow for ocean seas to build to
SCA levels by late Saturday into Saturday night. The timing of
the building swells will be dependent on the track and intensity
of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for forecasts on Tropical Storm Ernesto.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week. It is too
early to know what impacts may arise from an approaching
frontal system this weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches through
this evening. A low rip current risk is forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JP/MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...